Chapter 51: 700 million US dollars of land speculation
A week before the Spring Festival, Zhong Liyu returned from Hong Kong.
Today, Hong Kong is still shrouded in the power of the Queen of England. It is always called royal Hong Kong and other things, even in police and gangster films.
However, as the date of Hong Kong's return is approaching, the mentality of Hong Kong people is also changing.
Due to the uncertain expectations for future prospects, Hong Kong people's mentality is also relatively complicated.
For the super rich people in Hong Kong, there was also a differentiation at this time. Some rich people with poor foundations naturally chose to immigrate to Canada and other countries, where they have good living conditions and low immigration thresholds. Moreover, Chinese immigrants have formed a small circle and their living habits are not greatly affected.
The other part has no major problems. At the same time, rich people who have frequent contacts with mainland officials have chosen a low-key, tolerant and secretly develop, such as the Li family, Huo family, Dong family, etc. in Hong Kong. These major families have developed rapidly in recent years, so they will naturally not leave.
Some small families sandwiched in the middle are more miserable. They are watching the limelight and are difficult to make choices for a while. They are reluctant to let go of the family business they have accumulated over the years, and are also worried that after Hong Kong returns, they will encounter policy struggles.
The main purpose of Zhong Liyu's trip to Hong Kong this time is to conduct research on the real estate market in Hong Kong to see if she can find suitable investment opportunities.
Ye Kai welcomed her at Shuimu Hotel. This is a newly opened five-star hotel. The conditions in all aspects are very good. It is said that the boss is from Singapore, so the specific background is not very clear.
Of course, this is because Ye Kai is not interested in this. If he really wants to figure it out, there will naturally be many people rushing to help him do this.
The two of them didn't book a private room, so they directly chose a table next to the window to eat in the lobby.
"The real estate market in Hong Kong is still very promising." Zhong Liyu looked good. Since the Zhong Li family was successfully resolved, the pressure on her disappeared and she immediately restored her true nature as a doctoral student in economics. "The real estate industry has far exceeded the role of an investment market in Hong Kong's macroeconomics. Because the cornerstone of Hong Kong's economy is free trade, and the import and export of goods are zero tariffs, the development of the real estate market objectively establishes an agency system for the Hong Kong government. Land is the primary income of the Hong Kong government."
Ye Kai nodded with a smile, poured a glass of red wine for Zhong Liyu himself, and listened carefully to her words.
The Hong Kong real estate industry showed a clear cycle of cyclical prosperity and decline. The first cycle was from 1946 to 1959. Hong Kong's population was 600,000 in 1946, and increased to 1.86 million in 1949, and exceeded 3 million in 1959. The sharp increase in the population caused a sharp increase in housing demand. Driven by the Hong Kong government policies and interests, a large amount of capital poured in in the 1950s, and a boom in real estate construction occurred in Hong Kong. By 1958, the real estate market began to oversupply, and housing prices and land prices fell by 70%.
The second cycle was from 1959 to 1969. Starting from 1959, Hong Kong's economy showed a turning point. Coupled with the increase in foreigners coming to Hong Kong, the number of international commercial institutions increased, the demand for commercial buildings and residential buildings increased, which stimulated the rapid recovery of the real estate industry. Due to excessive lending of banks to the real estate industry and other factors, in the spring of 1965, a bank credit crisis broke out in Hong Kong. Then real estate prices plummeted, and many real estate companies went bankrupt. Hong Kong's real estate industry fell into the first major crisis after the war, and continued until 1969 to improve.
The third cycle was from 1969 to 1975. In 1969, the Hong Kong real estate market gradually recovered. The Hong Kong government formulated a "ten-year housing construction plan" in 1972, which prompted investors' confidence to recover quickly. However, the oil crisis in 1974 caused a plummeting Hong Kong stock market and led to a comprehensive adjustment of the real estate industry. Hong Kong's land prices fell by 40%, and housing prices fell by 30-40%.
The fourth cycle was from 1976 to 1985. Starting from the end of 1975, the real estate market rebounded again. The Hong Kong government began the subway construction plan in 1976, which increased the value of urban land. In 1978, it implemented the "Householders' House Plan" (i.e., the Cheap House Plan), which solved the housing problem of 2.225 million ordinary citizens. In 1977, Hong Kong's population exceeded 4.5 million, and in 1979, it reached 5 million. The increase in demand caused a shortage of buildings, and emerging towns (Tuen Mun, Sha Tin, Kwai Chung, etc.) gradually formed.
Inheriting the rapid development in the late 1970s, the Hong Kong real estate market reached its climax in 1981, but the subsequent global economic crisis and negotiations on issues between China and Britain and Hong Kong caused a crisis of confidence in Hong Kong people. At the end of 1982, Hong Kong housing prices fell 60% compared with 1981, and the real estate market collapsed in 1983. It was not until September 1984 that the market recovered again.
The fifth cycle was from the end of 1985 to the present. In the 1980s, Hong Kong's real estate industry further developed on the basis of the 1970s. In 1990, housing prices in Hong Kong Island more than doubled compared with 1981.
After giving a detailed report to Ye Kai on the history and current situation of the Hong Kong real estate market, Zhong Liyu expressed her views, "Although the Hong Kong real estate market has been in a steady upward trend, I think the future growth prospects are still worth looking forward to. If you enter the market at this time, I believe that it will bring us more than twice the returns within a few years."
After hearing this, Ye Kai nodded and agreed with Zhong Liyu's point of view.
In fact, in Ye Kai's memory, housing prices in Hong Kong rose by about 4 times from 1991 to 1997. It was not until the Hong Kong real estate bubble burst in 1997 that housing prices fell all the way, falling by about 70%.
"We have a total of US$720 million." Ye Kai patted his forehead. "If you stay in the Hong Kong real estate market for three years, you will get about 200% of the return, that is US$2.1 billion. This investment risk is the smallest, but the return is quite gratifying. You can do this. Well, leave 20 million US dollars for emergencies, and you can invest everything else!"
"All $700 million is invested?!" Zhong Liyu was shocked when she heard Ye Kai's words.
Although she believes that the Hong Kong property market is bullish, she does not have the courage to be Ye Kai. This is $700 million!
If there is a little bit of a mistake, Zhong Liyu really can't imagine the consequences.
Chapter completed!