Written in front: With Bismarck's departure, it is basically impossible to avoid the current peace that Bismarck left to Europe. In the future, coupled with changes in the East, this is a gorgeous and cruel game.

As for the political situation, I am just a rookie. If there are any changes in future books that everyone doesn’t like, please give me some advice.

The following are the reposting information:

The European Order established by German Prime Minister Bismarck On Bismarck's Diplomacy during the Bulgarian Crisis. Five years after the Berlin Conference, German Prime Minister Bismarck established a complex alliance system including Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Romania and other countries. The international politics of Europe was temporarily influenced by the Bismarck League. Berlin became the center of the European diplomatic stage. The Bulgarian crisis that broke out in 1885 put the Bismarck League on the brink of destruction. This article intends to discuss the fierce diplomatic competition between major European countries during the crisis and explore some characteristics of the diplomacy and international environment of major European powers in the late 19th century.

(one)

After the French-Prussian War, the unified and powerful Germany rose in Europe, completing a revolutionary transformation of the European international political environment, but also creating a German problem that has plagued the world for a century: Germany's natural advantage and other European countries' contradictions that did not accept this advantage. 1 The defeat not only caused France to lose Alsace and Lorraine, deprived it of its dominance on the European continent, and greatly deteriorated its geopolitical environment. In this way, France became a country that could not be reconciled. France could not deal with Germany alone. Whether for self-protection or preparation for revenge, France needed to form an alliance with any country hostile to Germany, which made the crisis involving Germany intensified and it was difficult to localize it. Therefore, it limited the basic direction of German diplomacy. In Bismarck's view, isolating France, maintaining the status quo in Europe and ensuring Germany's security is the same international environment that Bismarck faces.

The situation is extremely complex: in order to isolate France, it is necessary to maintain the conservative alliance between Russia and the three monarchs of Austria-Hungary and Germany. For this reason, he also needs to exert influence on the development of Russia-Austria relations. Russia-Austria relations are so close that they are leaving Germany aside or fighting for the Balkans will damage Germany's diplomatic status in Europe. While regarding Russia-German friendship as the cornerstone of Germany's diplomacy, he cannot offend Britain, which is sharply opposed to Russia in the Near East, Central Asia and Russia 187

The Near East crisis of 5 years to 1878 reflects the limitations of Bismarck's policy relative to the historical environment: the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Austria made it difficult for Bismarck to avoid the issue of making choices between Russia and Austria for a long time. Bismarck temporarily found a way out through the German-Austrian alliance in 1879. The real destination of the alliance was the Russian-Austrian alliance formed in June 1881, which allowed Germany to continue to maintain its restraint on Russia-Austrian relations and its mediation status between the two.

In September 1885, a revolution occurred in the Turkish province of Eastern Rumilia, and it was announced that it would merge with the Principality of Bulgaria, Tsar Alexander III, who has always regarded himself as a Bulgarian protector, could not tolerate the unification of the two places by the Grand Duke Alexander who did not obey his orders, thus consolidating the Grand Duke's status in Bulgaria. Russia tried to force Bulgaria to cancel the merger through coordination of the great powers. However, the fait accompli of Bulgaria's unification has irreversible Russia's Bulgarian policy faces unprecedented failure, and the Balkans are brewing a new crisis.

In January 1886, the fanatical chauvinist Brownge took office as the French Army Minister, setting off a frenzy in France demanding revenge on Germany. The relationship between Germany and France suddenly became tense. Two crises occurred at the same time. The Bismarck alliance faced severe tests. At the same time, the Three Sovereign Alliance, which was regarded as the foundation of Germany's diplomatic roots, was about to expire, and there was no hope of renewal of the contract. The international situation was completely out of control. Bismarck was afraid of the situation in his dreams. The attack of things that were attacked was about to become a reality.

If the policy of supporting Austro-Hungary is adopted in the Russian-Australian competition, it will have to bear the breakdown of Russia-German relations and thus provide France with the consequences of potential allies. In the circumstances at that time, the possibility of abandoning Austro-Hungary was completely ruled out. The preservation of Austro-Hungary and the status of a major power was an important link in Bismarck's European order. Once Austro-Hungary disintegrates under external pressure, it will not only endanger the balance of power in Europe, but also cause German diplomacy to lose room for maneuver, but also break the subtle political balance within the German Empire.

The Bulgarian crisis in 1885-1887 reopened the Eastern issue and created the prospect of confrontation between Russia and Austria. Russia and Turkey. The Russian army fought bloody battles, and 200,000 soldiers died on the battlefield, but they were hard to swallow. In September 1886, Grand Duke Yalisan was forced to abdicate under pressure from Russia. In November, the Tsar's special envoy Korbas failed to force the Bulgarian regent to recommend the candidates of Grand Duke who were favored by Russia and returned in disgrace. Russia and the Bulgarian broke off diplomatic relations. Russia's influence in Bulgaria was completely lost. The "dignity" of the Salzan emperor was trampled to an unparalleled level. The Balkans formed a dangerous situation where the Russian army was about to invade and triggered a conflict between major powers.

Once Russia enters Bulgaria, it will inevitably control Romania. Hungary will be in Russian Poland and Romania. The lifeline of Austro-Hungarian Danube in the three sides of Bulgaria is also cut off. It may be kept in the Balkans. It is not only a symbol of the status of Austro-Hungarian power, but also the source of the survival of the empire. On November 13, Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Carnoki delivered a speech in the Hungarian Parliament: Russia has no right to occupy Bulgaria and decide its destiny alone, otherwise it will be a war with Russia. The public opinion is generally believed that the coordination between Russia and Austria has lost its meaning. The Russian military and the Panslav faction are considering launching a military strike against Austro-Hungarian.

The most direct purpose of the Bismarck alliance is to restrain Russia and Austria and prevent conflicts between the two countries. His basic strategy at this time is to implement two-way suppression on the two countries and urge the two countries to resolve differences within the framework of the Three Emperors alliance. Regarding the strong and hard policies that Austro-Hungary may adopt under the instigation of Britain. He repeatedly warned that Bulgaria is Russia's sphere of influence, and the German-Austrian alliance is only defensive and needs to help find Britain to go to 3. Regarding Russia, he repeatedly stated that Germany is willing to support Russia's Bulgarian policy, but Austria-Hungary's status as a great power cannot be sacrificed. The way out lies in Russia and Austria reaching a compromise on the division of the Balkan sphere of influence.

Bismarck plays an "honest broker". Although he temporarily avoids the issue of making choices between Russia and Austria, it implies the danger of alienating the two countries at the same time Austro-Hungary cannot help but ask: "What is the value of the German-Austrian alliance?" "Germany has two allies, Austro-Hungary only half of it." 5 If the conclusion of the German-Austrian alliance in 1879 exacerbated Russia's sense of isolation and forced it to return to the track of alliance with Germany and Austria, then at this time, it can only deepen Russia's hostility at this time. In November 1886, when the Tsar received the new French ambassador to Russia, Labrad said: Russia hopes that France is strong, and the two countries need to work together to overcome difficulties together. This statement is on the one hand that it is the loss of the mission of Korbas.

The result of the defeat, the deepening of the Tsar's frustration, and the response to the speech of Karnoki Congress. If you want to resolve the Bulgarian issue according to Russia's wishes, you must rule out the obstruction of Austria-Hungary and not pose a threat. The key is that if Russia wants to launch a war against Austria-Hungary, or make the threat of war in Russia effective, Germany must be prevented in advance. The only hope is that France shows that the Russian side and the Panslav faction, through famous journalists, have exerted a significant influence on the Tsar's decision-making tendencies since the end of October. In order to restrain Germany, the Tsar may dramatically change its European policy, and the prospect of a France-Russian alliance has been vaguely revealed.

Bismarck's alliance system faces danger of collapse Brown's movement provides Bismarck with the opportunity to get out of trouble

(two)

After the founding of the Third Republic, France's political situation has been turbulent in the first half of the 1980s. During the Ferris Cabinet, France and Germany had a good time for a "colonial agreement" in France. However, the Alsace and Lorraine issue have always been a difficult wound to bridge in the relationship between the two countries. In 1885, the fall of the Ferris' "colonial cabinet" marked the rise of French revengeist forces. The famous poet Delulade's nationalist group had more than 100,000 members by July 1886, becoming a force that cannot be ignored in French politics and social life. Bronge entered Charles.

After the Fereci cabinet became the Minister of the Army, it became a symbol of French revival, regaining lost territory, and revenge on Germany. Since the fall of 1886, France-German relations have deteriorated.

Bismarck is not afraid of France's strength. Even a revengeful France always looks at the complexity of the Eastern issue. The two crises occur almost at the same time. Once Germany is involved in the Austro-Russia conflict, it is difficult to count on France. Congress stands by and watches. At that time, Germany must face up to the cold reality of fighting on both sides.

In the summer of 1886, Delulade visited Russia and advocated the alliance between France and Russia. In June, Katokov wrote an article in the Moscow News, criticizing Foreign Minister Giles' European policy and calling for a fundamental change in Russia's diplomatic line. He pointed out that Russia placed the abstract monarchal unity principle above its own national interests, which was a historic mistake. Russia must get rid of its shackles and said that "Katokov's attack" when restoring freedom of action in diplomacy.

Under the circumstances at that time, France and Russia had a huge gap in political systems, and there were serious differences in strategic interests and strategic priorities. The two countries did not immediately form an alliance. France would not support Russia's current Balkan policy at the expense of its long-term interests in the Near East. Russia is even more unlikely to help France recover Alsace and Lorraine, and take the risk of destroying the status quo and getting into a bad relationship with Germany. However, if the pressure and frustration are too strong, France and Russia may form a point of fit for interests in order to get out of the predicament.

No one can guarantee that the two countries will eventually not get together. In January 1887, after Russian special envoy Shuvalov visited Germany to bridge the differences and repair the Russian-German relations, the silence from Russia further confirmed Bismarck's suspicion that Russia might change its policies. Bismarck adjusted his strategy and determined to use Germany's existing diplomatic resources and the development of France to seek opportunities for reorganizing Germany's diplomatic lineup. After the Bulgarian crisis, fierce foreign exchanges began between Britain and Germany.

The two countries are unwilling to intervene first and make enemies with Russia. At the same time, they both need to avoid being isolated in the future European diplomatic arena. If it can cause mutual checks and balances between the other side and Russia, their diplomacy will gain unprecedented initiative. British Prime Minister Salisbury is deeply suspicious of Bismarck's intentions and is worried that once Britain and Russia confront and conflict over the Balkan issue and are deeply trapped in Balkan affairs, Bismarck will take the opportunity to defeat France and Britain's strategy is to urge Austria.

Hungary acted as the anti-Russian vanguard of the Balkans, so that Germany, which had an alliance obligation to Austro-Hungary, had no way to escape Bismarck, exaggerated the tension on the German-France border, created an imminent public opinion on war, intimidated the French government, and did not over-expand the military and prepared for war, and would not have a good result when it was an enemy of Germany. At the same time, it showed that Germany must do its best to deal with the French-German crisis and had no time to look east. The Balkan crisis could only be solved by those countries with vital interests in the region.

The German, Austria-Italy League concluded in 1882 was about to expire in May 1887. The parties were not interested in the alliance, but with the French-German crisis and the Bulgarian crisis at the same time, Italy's importance in Bismarck's mind increased significantly. Bismarck used the opportunity of the alliance renewal in February 1887 to strengthen the unity within the three alliance at the cost of supporting Italy's North Africa expansion policy, preventing hostile countries from attracting Italy, and at the same time, they won a safe and stable rear for Austro-Hungary to deal with Russia.

What is more meaningful is that this creates conditions for using Italy as a bridge to establish a connection between Britain and the Three-Nation Alliance countries that agree with Italy to have common interests on the colonial issue and maintain close cooperation.

At that time, due to the Egyptian issue formed by Britain and France after the unilateral occupation of Egypt in 1882, there were sharp contradictions and chauvinist clamors of the Bronco movement. The chauvinist clamor of Britain and Britain also targeted Britain if it could win the support of the three-way alliance countries on the Egypt issue, it would greatly strengthen its status in negotiations with France. If it could prompt Britain to adopt a firm policy in the Balkans to maintain the status quo and mobilize forces enough to curb France and Russia in the Near East, Austria-Hungary's security will be guaranteed, and Germany will be able to avoid being directly involved in Near East affairs and colliding with Russia in order to put pressure on Britain.

Smai said: Germany is watching France on the mainland, and Britain and Italy have gained freedom of movement. Britain and Italy jointly contain France in North Africa and cooperate with Austro-Hungary to jointly deal with Russia in the Near East. Europe's balance of power and peace may be preserved. But if Britain does not participate in European politics, it will inevitably fall into isolation. Germany has no reason to oppose France's expansion in North Africa and Russia in the Near East. Under the instigation of Bismarck, Britain and Italy exchange notes in February 1887, and Austro-Hungary also joined in the form of a note in March. The three countries concluded the First Mediterranean Agreement, promising to jointly maintain the status quo of the Mediterranean.

After the Mediterranean alliance was formed, the French government further realized the unrealistic and dangerous nature of the policy of alliance with Russia. The more urgent the French desire to form an alliance, the higher the price of Russia. Once it cannot meet Russia's requirements, it will induce unnecessary resentment. What is more, it will induce Germany to launch a "preventive" war. If France supports Russia's Bulgarian policy, it will need to bear the consequences of confrontation with all European countries. 11 The French government must take the initiative to ease France-German relations to avoid falling into the diplomatic trap set by Bismarck. In May, the French government lifted Bronge's post and the French-German crisis tended to ease.

(three)

Germany is located in Central Europe, facing the sea, and surrounded on three sides. Active and effective Eastern policy is the cornerstone of German diplomacy. If Germany and Russia have a long-term confrontation, German diplomacy is a game of dead chess. Otherwise, Germany can manipulate between the East and the West, and advance and retreat. There is more than glut. In Bismarck's eyes, isolating France and uniting Russia is a problem. After the Bulgarian crisis, Bismarck encouraged Russia to implement forward policies in the Balkans, and on the other hand, it mobilized and boycotted Russia's expansion. The Mediterranean union also proved the preciousness of German friendship to Russia deeply isolated Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Giles believes that whether it is safe.

Whether to prevent the security of Russia's Black Sea region or solve the Bulgaria issue, Russia needs to retain the alliance between Russia, Germany and Austria, and at least maintain friendly cooperation with Germany. At present, the alliance between France and Russia is not good for Russia, and France cannot form an alliance with Russia. If Russia loses Germany, it will mean complete isolation. As for the attitude of Tsar Alexander III, as German ambassador to St. Petersburg, Schweinitz, pointed out at the time: "The Tsar must consider the needs of foreign policy, maintain alliance with Germany, and consider conforming to public opinion and domestic stability. He must also show his hatred of Germany in public."

The editorial published by Katokov in March deeply hurt the Tsar and put it in a very embarrassing situation. The article disclosed the secret of the Three Emperors' alliance and criticized it fiercely, which forced the Tsar to either give up his alliance with Germany or publicly express his support for the Three Emperors' alliance. This is the ending that the Tsar must try his best to avoid. In his anger, the Tsar proposed to punish Katokov for his reduction in influence, which contrasted with the consolidation of Giles' status.

In view of the Tsar's flattery refusal to renew the treaty with Austro-Hungary, in May, Russia and Germany resumed negotiations in Berlin, preparing to replace the original Three Sovereign Alliance with a bilateral agreement between Russia and Germany. When discussing the neutral clause, Bismarck tried to induce Russia to agree by fully supporting Russia's Near East policy. In the case of the Russian-Australia conflict, Germany's conditional neutrality was for this reason. Bismarck read the text of the 1879 German-Australia Alliance Treaty to the Russian negotiators in order to show that Germany has no intention of taking on obligations contrary to the content of the German-Australia Alliance Treaty.

On June 18, 1887, Russia and Germany signed a new contract under the conditions of reservations when the neutral clause involved France and Austria attacked by the contracting parties, namely the Reinsurance Treaty. In Bismarck's view, although the treaty failed to ensure unconditional neutrality in the case of the Russian-German conflict, given the different attitudes of France and Germany towards the current situation since 1871, the alliance needed by France must be offensive. The Reinsurance Treaty at least excluded this possibility. If France cannot win Russia's support in advance, it will be impossible to challenge the German status quo alone. Peace and Germany's security are guaranteed.

Through the Reinsurance Treaty, Bismarck re-established the two-way suppression of Germany and Austria. Bismarck used this to show Russia and Austria that Germany will always stand with the attacked parties and jointly fight against the invasion. Whoever destroys European peace is Germany's enemy, but Bismarck must face up to another danger. If Russia provokes Austro-Hungary to launch an attack first, how will Germany deal with it? 15 The battles within Russia surrounding the signing of the Reinsurance Treaty, the tsar's position wavering. After the signing of the treaty, Russia's endless request for Germany on the Bulgaria issue greatly reduced Bismarck's value to the treaty. His confidence in the friendship between the Tsar and Germany and Russia has been irreversibly shaken since then.

In July 1887, Ferdinand of Coburg was elected as the Grand Duke of Bulgaria in violation of the Tsar's wishes. Russia sued the possibility of force. The Russian newspaper industry was filled with abuse against Germany. In August, Delulade took the opportunity to attend Katokov's funeral and visited Bismarck again. He was deeply worried about the current situation. Since Russia was no longer reliable, Germany must find another way out, just in case. In May 17, France and Russia jointly forced Sudan to give up the British envoy Wolf and Turkey. The plan for the withdrawal of Britain from Egypt. The momentum of cooperation between France and Russia aroused the common vigilance between Britain and Germany. Salisbury was worried that if Austro-Hungary was forced to compromise with Russia because he could not get aid, he might return to the isolated and passive situation that was extremely unfavorable to Britain during the Three Emperors' alliance.

18 Bismarck took advantage of the situation to send the text of the German-Austrian Alliance Treaty to London, and wrote a letter to Salisbury on November 22, saying: "If the Austro-Hungarian Empire is threatened by Russian aggression, or Britain and Italy are in danger of French invasion, Germany will always have the responsibility to adopt a policy of entering the front." 19 After Britain confirmed the extent of Germany's support for Austro-Hungarian, on December 12, 1887, and on December 16, Britain, Austria and Italy exchange notes to reach the "Second Middle School"

"The Agreement on the Sea basically excludes the possibility that Russia will occupy Bulgaria, or hold Sudan hostage, and control the Turkish Strait. If Russia provokes Austro-Hungary, it will be besieged by Britain and Austro-Italy. Under this background, Russia began to retreat. In January 1888, with the support of Germany, Russia asked the Turkish government to declare Ferdinand elected illegally. It was boycotted by Britain and Austro-Italy. In April, Turkey met Russia's demands and Russia saved some of its face. After that, the Bulgaria issue was incomplete.

(Four)

The Reinsurance Treaty and the Mediterranean Agreement created a mutual restraint between Britain, Austria and France and Russia in the Near East and the Mediterranean, and at the same time it blocked the combination of France and Russia, ensuring Germany's dominance in the European continent. However, Bismarck's system contains great complexity and contradictions, and the balanced situation it contributed to was essentially fragile.20 Therefore, his diplomacy is still just a temporary measure to delay the issue.

As a master of real politics, Bismarck has brought diplomatic art to the extreme and realistic politics has promoted Germany's unification and consolidation. Bismarck's obsession with real politics eventually made Germany reap its own consequences. Although with the unification of Germany, Bismarck transformed from a destroyer of the status quo to a defender of the status quo, the situation is no longer the same. Under the impact of the wave of nationalism, the principle of monarchy unity he advocated has lost its ability to maintain its power. The pursuit of power has become the basic means for countries to safeguard their own security and interests. International relations have added new instability factors. 21 "Katokov's attack" is a ironic response to Bismarck.

In Bismarck's era, the relationship between major powers in Europe became increasingly rigid and tense. Germany's unification made China and Europe lose its historical buffering role. It can no longer provide warning and compensation for the struggle between major powers for hegemony, so that it completely changed the structure of European power. 22 The looseness of the relationship between major powers on which the balance of power diplomacy relies on is disappearing. It is the sign that the conclusion of the German-Austrian alliance in 1879. In fact, it is difficult for Germany to make other choices. Bismarck's alliance is reflected in the instinct of this change. It in turn consolidates and strengthens this trend. The tension of major power relations is the reason for the establishment of the Bismarck League and is also a necessary condition for it to maintain Bismarck's diplomatic style. It embodies the mentality of combining conceit and anxiety. In order to prevent the union of hostile forces, establish Germany's unshakable leadership on the European continent, and maintaining moderate tension in major power relations is necessary.

He encouraged cooperation. Once they get along well, he withdrew his support and created friction. However, Bismarck's strategy might win allies for Germany, but it often made Germany lose friends. 23 Germany at that time was essentially a country that belonged to the status quo. For the rising Germany, the notorious reputation of dishonesty may be more dangerous than war. European countries' confidence in German policies. Trust is the prerequisite for maintaining Germany's diplomatic status. Bismarck's strategy often has the opposite effect. As the situation in Europe gradually became tense, an international environment full of hostility, suspicion and insecurity has begun to appear. It is the beginning of the stalemate and tense relationship with major powers. The gradual loss of balance and flexibility of German policies is the gradual loss of balance and flexibility in October 1886. Bismarck's letter to his son said: Once Russia and Austria go to war, no matter who is the attacking party, Germany has no choice but to stand on the side of Austro-Hungary to fight.

When Bismarck was on stage, he could use his masterful diplomatic skills and lofty prestige to offset the negative consequences of his policies. After him, there was no one to succeed.
Chapter completed!