After returning from Yingyou Island, Lin Fu sent Lin Mengde and others away and returned to the camp on his own. At dusk, he accompanied Su Mei and Xiao Man to have fun in the garden. When it was getting dark, Liu Shidu came over to ask for a visit.

"Liu Shidu, please give him some time to get close to Zong Ting and Cun Xin. However, he came to bother me again. Could it be that he was worried about not getting the book I promised to give him?" Lin Fu was quite upset that Liu Shidu came to see him alone at this time.

Puzzled, he told Su Mei and Xiaoman that he had promised to give Liu Shidu "The Art of Speculation" while watching the performance during the day.

Su Mei smiled and said: "Master Liu may not be so small-minded, thinking about your husband's letter. I guess he probably has some ideas that are contrary to Meng Degong, and he feels that writing a letter to him may not be convincing, but he hides it in his heart.

I can’t express my feelings quickly, so I took this opportunity to come alone to express my opinions…”

"Then ask him to go to the study room and wait..." Lin Fu frowned slightly. At present, many new laws and regulations have not been established. It will take a long time for the laws and regulations to be finalized and rigorous. Lin Fu cannot yet put them into place.

Everything was left to the Duke's Council and the Privy Council, and Liu Shidu was led to the study room where he usually received guests in the inner room.

After Lin Fu took a breath, he called Song Jia and rushed to the study room together. He smiled at Liu Shidu who was sitting in the back room and said, "I haven't sent anyone to deliver the booklet yet, but Mr. Liu came to say thank you first..."

…”

"Shidu didn't dare to ask the lord for the book. He really has other doubts. I hope the lord can explain it to the master." Liu Shidu blushed and respectfully invited Lin Fu and Song Jia to come in.

Lin Fu looked at Liu Shidu's face and wondered what he would say if he asked to see him alone.

"If anything happens, just sit down and tell me."

Lin Fu sat cross-legged with a long case in front of him, and invited Liu Shidu to sit in front of the case so that he could talk easily. Lin Fu casually invited Liu Shidu to sit in front of the case. It was cold outside, so he simply burned a stove in the study to keep warm, and placed an iron sheet on the stove.

The kettle is boiling with a "pop" sound.

"Jiangdong County was divided into four divisions: Jianghuai, Huaixi, Chongzhou, and Jiangning. The Dingtian, account and other data of Jianghuai Division had been merged before the division came..." Lin Fu sat cross-legged casually, but Liu Shidu turned his waist

He straightened his limbs to show his dignity and sat across from Lin Fu, which was actually more strenuous than sitting on a chair. He slowly said what he had been thinking about for a long time.

The split of Jiangdong County has been something that has been going on since Lin Fu's first year.

Jiangdong County was split into four parts, and two Xuanfu Envoys were set up. The two Zhili Prefectures were under the direct jurisdiction of the Privy Council. After the split, the Yamen Office was set up, and the split and merger of Dingtian and other data were also the most urgent things for the Jianghuai County Secretary. However, these data

They were all forwarded to him through the Privy Council. There was no need for Liu Shidu to avoid Lin Meng and report to him alone.

There was no need for anyone else to wait on him, so Song Jia held a pot for Lin Fu and Master Liu made tea. He asked boiling water to be poured over it, and the aroma of tea filled the house and awakened his nostrils. Song Jia put the kettle on the stove and retreated behind the screen; Lin Fu then

Without saying a word, she motioned for him to continue.

Liu Shidu thought for a while and replied: "The records of Ding Tian were recorded in fish scale books in the old days, but there were even many errors and omissions, and there were many omissions and omissions, which were not enough to support good governance. However, the Lord was implementing a new policy in Huaidong. Except for Ding Tian, ​​the people's mouths were not as good as the old ones."

, grain production, property, marriage and childbearing age, maternal deaths, infant deaths, the number of mulberry and cotton fields and cattle feeding, all can be traced in detail, which is very convenient for people's livelihood and governance, and it is actually good governance. Only with detailed data can we

We know for sure that the power of the new policy is far beyond the power of the old..."

"Yes, yes, yes, if you only report the good news but not the bad, you won't miss the opportunity to drink with Zong Ting and the others..." Lin Fu said, asking Liu Shidu to put down the burden and tell him if he has anything to say.

Liu Shidu went on to say: "... In the past, for girls of childbearing age, childbirth was a matter of life and death. Jianghuai was good, but there was a saying that one hundred lives and one death. When giving birth to children, poor families had the most difficulty in maintaining their health. After six or seven children were born, many died in infancy.

, only two or three children can grow up. However, the Lord governs the Jianghuai River, implements new policies, and makes all prefectures and counties implement health laws. The old views on difficulty in childbirth and child mortality have been gradually improved in recent years. These have been gradually improved in Hailing Prefecture.

In the inventory after the first year of Yongxing, detailed records were obtained, including the first scene of the prosperous age, and Shidu came specially to congratulate the lord!"

Lin Fulue guessed Liu Shidu's purpose of coming, but seeing that he was still secretive up to this point and did not dare to tell the truth, he sat down with his hands in his hands, holding a lamp, and waited for Liu Shidu to continue hesitantly.

"Last year, more than 80,000 children were born in Hailing Prefecture, and 186 pregnant women died; 4,000 children under ten years old, including dead babies who did not survive, died in infancy due to illness or accidents.

There were more than 30,000 people who died. In the first year of Yongxing, when the number of births was the same, more than 500 mothers died, more than 15,000 children died in infancy, and adults died due to illness or accidents.

, it’s only slightly more, not a big change…”

Lin Fu pressed his hands on the long desk and remained silent.

In the first year of Yongxing, various conditions in Hailing Mansion had improved, but judging from the data of that year, nearly 20% of the children still died and could not grow up to adulthood; even then, the young children in Hailing Mansion

The number of premature deaths accounts for about 6% of newborns. It is no wonder that people at that time had a tradition of having many children.

"..." Liu Shidu said, "Due to the Lord's good governance, after excluding the migrating Ding households last year, Hailing Prefecture had an increase of more than 48,000 Ding households; but in the first year of Yongxing, this number was less than three

Wan. Earlier, from the Qingyu to Chongguan years, the number of Ding households in Hailing has been decreasing instead of increasing..."

Hailingfu is undoubtedly the place where, except for a few areas such as Chongju and Jeju, the New Deal has been implemented most thoroughly and for the longest time. It can be said that the power of the New Deal has been fully demonstrated.

Excluding the factors of mass migration, a high proportion of net increase in population is definitely the prelude to a prosperous age.

However, it is obvious that Liu Shidu has a different view on this.

"The net increase in the Hailing Mansion in one year is more than 48,000!" Lin Fu gritted his teeth and sucked in the cold air.

Traditionally, the net increase in Ding households has been regarded as one of the core achievements of local officials.

Population growth also has the most direct stimulus to local and central government income growth, which will also lead to an increase in national strength.

The actual situation is that the long-term war has brought about a sharp decline in population, making the land relatively abundant. Now and in the future, a large number of people will be needed to fill the sparsely populated areas in Jingxiang, Henan, and Guanzhong due to the war. Therefore, the Privy Council also intends to lower the marriage rate again.

childbearing age to stimulate population growth.

In the past, whenever great chaos was resolved and a new dynasty was established, a policy of recuperation and rest would be carried out, and young girls would even be forced to marry and have children at an early age to increase the fertility rate and stimulate population growth.

The pros and cons of anything are relative and there is a balance point.

The most intuitive understanding of the benefits of population increase is that more people are more powerful and more people are more powerful. However, the population increase is too fast and exceeds the growth rate of food production. When the production of food and other necessary materials for survival cannot meet the demand,

When the total population demand increases, it will induce a series of vicious disasters such as famine and war.

The population of Hailing Prefecture has a base of 1.6 million; after deducting the factors of population migration, from Qingyu to Chongguan years, the population of Hailing Prefecture did not increase but declined; and in the first year of Yongxing, there were 30,000 people

the net increase; by last year, the increase had risen to 48,000 people - and the township system of Hailingfu has been established, and the local statistical data can be said to be complete - this means that the population of Hailingfu is naturally

The growth rate has already risen to about 3%. If it is not controlled, it will continue to rise in the next three to five years.

As for the reason why Hailing Prefecture has experienced a high proportion of net population growth in recent years, Liu Shidu also made it very clear. Since the 10th year of Chongguan, many new government measures have been gradually implemented in Hailing Prefecture, which has made Hailing Prefecture's young children

The mortality rate has dropped sharply, as well as the mortality rate of adults from diseases and the death rate of childbearing women year by year.

Population growth is a plural growth. A natural growth rate of three percent may not seem large, but it only takes about twenty-three years to double the population from the base level, and it takes forty-six years to double the population from the base level.

Quadruple it——

Liu Shidu carefully observed Lin Fu's expression and speculated that he must have realized that rapid population growth was not necessarily a good thing, so he continued: "After Emperor Gaozu established the dynasty, he also carried out a policy of rest and recuperation in order to keep the population strong, but his government

Not as far away as the lord. According to the actual survey of Ding households in Hailing Prefecture, the population of Ding households has only doubled in the past two hundred years. According to the lord's government, private planning based on divisions, twenty-three years later, Ding's population has only doubled.

The population will double..."

The war has caused a sharp decrease in population, and there is relatively sufficient cultivated land, which has created relatively sufficient space for the recovery or increase of the population. However, if this space takes more than two hundred years to slowly fill up, at least in the early days of the dynasty, it will not be possible.

If it creates too big a problem, it will lead to great rule in the early decades or even nearly a hundred years of the dynasty due to the gradual increase in population and the orderly development of more land.

At present, the counties south of the Qinling Mountains and east of the Xiajiang River have a population of approximately 50 million. If the New Deal is fully implemented in the counties, the burden and survival pressure on the people will be reduced, health and medical conditions will be greatly improved, and the population will remain at 100 million.

A net increase of three-quarters would double the population to 100 million within 23 years.

If we say that after 23 years, the land south of the Qinling Mountains can still support a population of 100 million, but in the next 23 years, the population will double again, and the number of people living in the Qinling Mountains and south of the Huai River will reach 200 million——

Coupled with the natural increase in population in the north of the Qinling Mountains, as well as in Sichuan and Daxiguan, if the population growth rate of the new empire cannot be curbed, the total population of the new empire will be close to 400 million in 40 to 50 years. By then,

Can such a dense and huge population still be affordable with the existing cultivated land and crop yields?

Lin Fu looked up at Liu Shidu. Unexpectedly, he, who was born in the traditional imperial examination, would think of the problem of overpopulation before others. Why would Liu Shidu bypass Lin Mengde and go directly to him? He should appear with Lin Mengde in Haizhou Mansion.

There were exchanges on the population issue, but the issue of overpopulation was obviously a bit ahead of its time. It is not difficult to understand that Lin Mengde ignored it and even sneered at Liu Shidu's concerns.

Perhaps many people would be puzzled by Liu Shidu's concern over the high proportion of net population growth in Haizhou Prefecture, instead of being happy about it?

With the further development of Guangnan, Yizhou, Qiongzhou and other areas, with the continuous improvement of farmland water conservancy construction in other areas, with the continuous improvement of planting species and the use of more fertilizers, Lin Fu believes that Qinling Mountains and the south of the Huaihe River can be

It is not a problem for the region's total grain production to increase four or five times. As long as the grain is relatively sufficient and the population is surplus, it can be absorbed by the emerging industry and mining industry, which will once again stimulate the development of social productivity.

It’s just that the increase in total grain production is a long-term process. To double and then double grain production, it may take seventy or eighty years, hundreds of years, or even longer. And once the population increases in just forty or fifty years

If the growth rate doubles and then doubles, it is likely to exceed the total supply capacity of food production in the world, which becomes a huge hidden danger.

Liu Shidu could not be more optimistic about the prospects of increasing grain production than Lin Fu. If he realized the problem of overpopulation, he would have even stronger worries.

The new policy implemented by Lin Fu was supposed to unveil the rule of the prosperous age. It was normal for Liu Shidu not to like Lin Mengde and others when he talked about the hidden dangers of overpopulation. Liu Shidu did not write a special letter stating the matter, but

He wanted to make a special trip to see him alone, which showed that he was also prepared to reprimand Lin Fu, to fight in person, or to judge the depth of the matter by observing his words.

"It's a prosperous time for people to thrive, but Liu Gong is worried that the land can't bear it." Lin Fu picked up the tea cup, took a sip of tea, and asked, "Liu Gong is worried about this, from now on."

Where do you think about it?"

"Before the eighth year of Chongguan, the country was in difficulty, but it could barely survive. In the winter of the ninth year of Chongguan, the Yanhu invaders and the chaos in Huaisi completely damaged the vitality of the country. Why did Huaisi become in chaos? How can we overcome these?

I have been thinking about it repeatedly over the years, and the results are not long ago. The first is that the refugees who poured into Huaisi were deceived by the brother-in-law of Mrs. Qiaoguo and rebelled; the second is that the local officials in Henan, Guanzhong and Yanjing were responsible for Chong Chong.

Looking at the severe drought that spread to more than 20 counties in 1989, the treatment was ineffective, or in other words, it was impossible to treat, causing the affected people to flee, impacting surrounding counties, and forming a refugee wave of millions. Third, the new agricultural science

Zheng Zheng believed that the severe drought that spread to Henan and Guanzhong in the eighth year of Chongguan and nine years was closely related to over-cultivation and the sharp decrease in forest land in these places. Shidu also believed that this should be the case. Fourth, over-cultivation and the sharp decrease in forest land.

It is directly related to overpopulation. Fifth, even if the land is over-cultivated, in the disaster-stricken areas of Henan and Guanzhong, the number of grain fields that can be cultivated by young people has been reduced by more than 50% in the past two hundred years, and private grain cultivation has

The decrease in the amount of food and the lack of changes in taxes have resulted in a significant reduction in the grain reserves of ordinary people and their ability to survive famines. The vast majority of people cannot withstand the disaster of two seasons of no harvests..." At this point, Liu Shidu lowered his head and swept it on his sleeves.

With two eyes, it was obvious that he had come prepared. He was afraid that his memory would be incomplete as he aged and his words would be disordered, so he deliberately wrote the key points on the inside of his sleeve.

Lin Fu took a look and saw that Liu Shidu's sleeves were densely written with words. He thought that he had already thought deeply about this and listened to him continue without interrupting.

"Sixth, land annexation has caused the disaster-stricken areas to have surplus grain, which is mostly concentrated in the hands of big landowners. The poor people are unable to buy surplus grain to tide over the famine, so they can only leave the disaster-stricken areas to tide over the famine years. Seventh,

The people affected by the disaster poured out and impacted surrounding prefectures and counties, forming a larger-scale refugee group of hundreds. Eighth, during the Chongguan period, although Jianghuai was a land of plenty, it was unable to accommodate millions of people due to population overflow.
To be continued...