Chapter two hundred and eighty fifth big short
An excellent investment plan cannot be separated from a process, "assumption-argument-financing-betting-waiting-harvest".
Now pointing to the projection screen, showing the charts and the data investigated around this time, we began to argue with everyone about the possibility of the boss's assumption.
"We spent money to hire several investigators and conducted investigations on real estate projects in some areas of various states. The feedback was surprising because we didn't have the money to pay for bank loans, many houses were already overgrown, people were gone, and buildings were empty. There was even a block of houses that had been occupied by homeless people. The owner who originally bought the house with a loan had long been missing.
Even so, those real estate agents are still desperately encouraging people who have no ability to pay for a loan to buy a house. Can you imagine that you can buy a house with a loan without any mortgage or procedures? There are many speculators in the market who rely on 0 down payment to earn a difference in price by replacing the house. With the decline of the real estate market, these people cannot sell the houses in their hands. Do they have the ability to repay the bank loan? They can only throw them into their hands or simply run away and throw the burden to the bank."
Everyone in the conference room listened to Alvetre's introduction with a serious expression. Data were displayed one by one, and photos of weeds growing and dry pools were all explained to everyone. The real estate market of the United States was on the verge of collapse. When all the hidden debts and problems were exposed to the world, that is, when the bubble burst, the crisis was full of opportunities.
Everyone couldn't help but start to tremble slightly, and their eyes were all staring at the little boss on the head with a calm expression. The boss who discovered this problem early might be the biggest beneficiary. As for whether this is a nightmare for ordinary people and people from other countries, it is not a question they should consider.
"We need an appropriate tool to short real estate, otherwise the risk and return will be extremely mismatched. Boss, have you taken a fancy to the financial tool of CDS?" Budstone was convinced by all the data displayed. The facts are stronger than words. Thinking of the night when he first met his boss, it was the first time he asked himself whether he recognized Michael Bry. Did the boss have discovered problems in the real estate market at that time?
"Yes, it's cds!" The answer was not Andy, but Alvetre, who had changed to a projection picture, and everyone's eyes turned to Al again.
"Everyone here should be familiar with this CDS. After all, in the past few months, this financial tool and its inventor Michael Bry have been the laughing stock of the entire Wall Street. But today I want to tell you that this is also a financial tool with almost perfect risks and returns." As he said that, he started to explain on the projection screen with the laser pen in his hand. Of course, most people can understand it.
"Take the boss's assets as an example, a principal of 500 million US dollars can be purchased for BBB-grade CDS products, but it does not require $6 billion to pay, but pays a 1% premium of $6 billion per year and $60 million. Moreover, this money can also be stored in the bank before payment to obtain 5% interest, that is, $30 million interest. In this way, as long as you spend $30 million in the first year, plus a commission of $10 million per year, a $500 million product will lose up to 8% a year, but in theory, you can earn 1200%!"
As soon as Alvetre finished speaking, Andy stood up on the table with his hands, his eyes swept across everyone with a sharp look, and shouted excitedly: "This is the best deal ever! Because it will definitely not last for this year!"
To be honest, Andy was almost cheated by the foresight brought by his time travel! After all, he was a programmer in his previous life, and his understanding of the financial market was equal to nothing. He knew the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of the US real estate. Of course, he also browsed the Hollywood "Big Short" movie that made people feel boring.
It was because of this movie that he almost killed him. After recalling this movie with his super-god state, the movie was adapted from real stories after all, and he really took it seriously. He began to think that investing 500 million US dollars, 07,08 could earn up to 2 billion US dollars for two years was really a shame for the opportunity of this financial crisis, but it was still acceptable.
But when Alvetre calculated the losses and profits in the office before and showed him, he was trembling. 6 billion. This amount of money was bitten by the bank in 2008. Ten billion is really not a dream. If he is not excited, it is fake. Therefore, he is worried about gains and losses, and he is worried about his opponent's counterattack.
Andy knew very well that after he suppressed all his wealth as bargaining chips, all he had to do was wait and torture. An object with a very high momentum would have to undergo very fierce resistance to change the original trend. It would take longer to turn around. Fortunately, he knew how long it took.
Don’t think that the default rate has increased significantly and that housing prices have begun to turn around can make money by short sellers like Andy. They will also face the final resistance of the entire system. This resistance is extremely strong and will even make many short sellers doubt whether their decisions are correct and die at the darkest moment before dawn.
When the crisis finally breaks out, it does not mean success. It is not considered success before the money is obtained, because many forces will jump out and put pressure on individuals and institutions holding CDs, and buy them from them to reduce the losses of the bank. Of course, these pressures are not a problem for Andy, and he can ignore them at all.
Everyone looked at the young boss who was like a hungry wolf who chose someone to be eaten, and they couldn't help but feel the ambition and coldness of this young man who always smiled with confidence and sunshine on his usual days.
A nightmare of ordinary Americans may even trigger a world financial crisis. As an opportunity to seize wealth, of course, they are all Wall Street people. No one is not greedy. The slightest emotion that arises are just the tears of crocodiles. Andy has no sympathy at all. Damn, my soul is from the heavenly dynasty. No one can blame anyone who cares about the life and death of ordinary people and legally earns wealth. However, when everyone here looks at the little boss, there is a kind of awe.
In fact, there are many people who find that the real estate bubble is in danger of bursting, or it can be said that there are tens of thousands of people. This is not a joke. In 2006, at least tens of thousands of Americans, including real estate agents, loan reviewers, and home buyers who are under increasing pressure, smelled the upcoming crisis, but these people have no way to short the US real estate market directly.
Because CDS will no longer be sold on the market, ordinary investors can't even touch the threshold.
"Bad, you can solve the threshold problem of ISDA, there is no problem, right?" Andy asked, looking at Budstone, who was thinking about something.
"No problem, it can be solved with just one phone call. We were not interested in these junk bonds before. The last time we made a big profit in the futures market, the International Swap and Derivatives Association sent us an invitation letter." Badstone nodded and responded.
"That's good. After all, we cannot trade CDS without passing the ISDA threshold! In addition to being the main members of my think tank, everyone here is the senior management of Liberty City Investment Company. The reason for holding this meeting is to let everyone understand my intentions and plans, and then implement them. In the next period of time, I need you to earn and recover funds to the greatest extent. In one month, we will invest all the funds in CDS. At the same time, we will also be aware of everyone here in advance. I hope you can prepare early and avoid losses in the upcoming storm. Everyone, it depends on you next!"
Chapter completed!