Next year, and next year.

Liu Xingzhi's eyes flickered, guessing what next year's big action would be and why Guo Dajing repeatedly emphasized this time next year.

"Although Besha Mountain City is the only powerful barrier to the Nanguan Defense Line, I don't need you to defend to the end." Guo Dajing glanced at the generals present and said in a deep voice: "If Jianlu uses all his strength to attack, we may all be destroyed.

Under such circumstances, you can abandon the city and retreat into the mountains and forests to preserve your vitality."

In the final analysis, although Beisha Mountain City is dangerous, it is isolated from the outside and is unlikely to receive reinforcements from the Nanguan Defense Line.

In other words, the six thousand defenders may face Jianlu's crazy siege. However, due to the terrain, Jianlu cannot completely surround the mountain city and can only attack and occupy it.

The Dahei Mountains, or the Dahei Mountains, cover a very large area. If the defenders want to retreat, the vast mountains and forests will

If you gain land and lose people, you will lose both people and land; if you lose land and gain people, you will gain both people and land.

Guo Dajing didn't even defend the Jinzhou Acropolis, so how could he care about a mountain city?

His purpose was to provide a buffer and barrier for the Nanguan defense line, and to take advantage of the dangerous location of the mountain city to inflict heavy casualties on the rebels, rather than defend to the end.

If we want to hold on, we can only defend the Nanguan Defense Line. The lives of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians in Jinzhou are related, and we must not retreat.

Reaching out to stop what Liu Xingzhi was about to say, Guo Dajing said with a smile: "Guo believes that you all have the determination and will to fight to the end, but the overall strategy does not need to be like this. Please try to stay useful and see the Ping Liao annihilation.

That day."

Liu Xingzhi smiled bitterly. He wanted to express his determination to Guo Dajing, but when he said this, he had to bow and said: "Please don't worry, general. The general will set up a camp in the mountains and forests outside the city to store supplies."

"That's it, make a backup plan." Guo Dajing nodded with a smile and said: "According to some estimates, the Jianlu troops may be divided into two groups to attack the mountain city and the Nanguan defense line respectively. The Nanguan defense line is the place to defend, and the firepower

Being the strongest and having the most troops, wouldn’t it be a waste if we don’t inflict heavy damage on Jianlu?”

To prevent the defenders of Besha Mountain City from fighting to the end, Guo Dajing made new arrangements after inspecting the strongholds in Xiaoheishan and other places.

Whether it is troops or weapons, the Nanguan defense line is the strongest. Even so, a barrier is needed to prevent the enemy from approaching the city without any hindrance.

For example: Is Shanhaiguan strong and strong, and are there many troops left behind? However, we still need to set up defense lines such as Ningyuan in front, just to be safe and not to pin our hopes entirely on Shanhaiguan.

In Guo Dajing's view, this has the meaning of defense in depth, which is more flexible and has more room for maneuver. Of course, it will also cause the invading captives to pay more casualties.

It is certain that Jianlu will attack Beshashan City, but after the attack is frustrated, they may not necessarily use all their strength, regardless of casualties, and must capture it before continuing to advance to the Nanguan defense line.

Just like the Battle of Ningjin, Jianlu would probably leave troops to guard Beishashan City, while the rest of the troops came to attack the Nanguan defense line.

If the defenders of Besha Mountain City were to launch an attack, Jianlu would be eager for the enemy to leave the strong fortifications of the mountain city and start fighting in the wild.

Jianlu must still have strong confidence in field battles and hopes to defeat the enemy in field battles. This is the surest way to win.

If the defenders of Besha Mountain City remained stationary and Jianlu stormed the Nanguan defense line, as long as they could break through, the existence of Beisha Mountain City would be meaningless.

As for the current situation of the captives, from a strategic perspective, their operations would not just be a simple military attack, but should also include looting.

To put it bluntly, not fighting a war that yields nothing can also be called a form of "fighting to support war."

Therefore, the hundreds of thousands of people behind the Nanguan Defense Line and a year's worth of grain harvest should be the main goals of building a captive army.

The population can provide land for the Jianlu people to produce and enslave; food will provide them with supplies for their next attack.

Moreover, Jianlu's tolerance for casualties is not great, unless it is a strategic decisive battle, he will do so at any cost.

But attacking Jinzhou is obviously not a decisive battle, but a military operation to reduce the threat of the captives.

Therefore, it should be a tentative attack in Beisha Mountain City. After realizing that it is a tough enemy, they will probably switch to attack the Nanguan defense line to achieve the purpose of launching this operation.

After Guo Dajing analyzed it, Liu Xingzhi and other generals nodded repeatedly, feeling as if they had suddenly realized something.

It's easy to say it, but it's very difficult to be as meticulous as Guo Dajing.

Without a full understanding of Jianlu's manpower, material resources, financial resources, grain and grass material reserves, and the psychological changes caused by several setbacks, it is difficult to make such a clear judgment.

"So, the situation in Jianlu is already very bad?" Liu Xingzhi was a little surprised and confused. He didn't really believe in this conclusion.

"Paper tigers just look scary." Guo Dajing laughed and said: "The decline had already appeared a year or two before the old slave died. If the old slave had not died, it might be even worse now."

Now that the conversation was open, Guo Dajing felt that he could have a more in-depth conversation with the generals to increase their confidence in victory.

"Jianlu has had huge flaws from the beginning to the end. First, the population is small and cannot withstand consumption; second, the production methods are backward and the management methods are rough, resulting in a lack of materials..."

"Why the Jianlu can usually only launch one or two large-scale attacks a year is because of limited food and supplies. In fact, as long as the Jianlu can be completely blocked and not given the opportunity to plunder, defeat will be a matter of time..."

"The attack on North Korea was an action the Jianlu had to take to break the blockade; similarly, the crusade against the Chahar tribe had the same purpose..."

"But North Korea is small and poor, and the supplies it can provide are very limited and cannot solve the fundamental problem. Last year, the climate in Liaodong was colder than in previous years. The islands that grow traditional crops should have felt it more deeply, and the harvest failure was obvious."

"I won't explain much, but you have to believe that the cold climate and frequent disasters will last for more than ten years. The built-up captives only know how to kill and destroy, but how can they understand construction and management? It is inevitable that the crops they plant will fail..."

"Last year, there were gains from attacking North Korea, and this year's attack on Chahar will also bring a lot of gains, but the Jianlu can only barely support it."

"Next year, Jianlu will still not have any effective means to deal with natural disasters. After the autumn harvest, what will they rely on to support themselves, and what will they use to compete with the Ming Dynasty?"

Economic crisis is a new term. Guo Dajing didn't want to say it, but the generals could also guess what kind of difficulties the great famine would put Jianlu's rule into and what kind of chaos it would cause.

"In that case, Jianlu will definitely take action next autumn." Qiu Zhentai said thoughtfully, "Or they just keep going."

Liu Xingzhi shook his head and said: "It's definitely not possible to keep doing it. By spring, even the seeds and grains will be eaten up, so we won't even be able to farm."

Guo Dajing smiled and said nothing. He did not think that Jianlu would sit still and wait for death in the great famine. However, the growing strength of Dongjiang Town brought variables to the plundering of the capital, and it may even not happen.

In addition, does Jianlu have any other ways to survive the economic crisis and avoid collapse?

Guo Dajing put himself in his shoes and came up with several ideas for Huang Taiji.

Continue to attack Chahar, then attack North Korea, and use all your strength to attack Dongjiang Town, which is the largest land base in Dongjiang Town - Jinzhou.

But no matter which method was used, it had limited effect on Jianlu's relief from the great famine.

The tiger and the rabbit have poor other abilities, but they can run faster than rabbits, so they may not be able to capture big things;

North Korea is not rich either. Even if it knocks its bones and sucks out its marrow, it won’t get much;

It may not be easy to fight to the death with Dongjiang Town and completely relieve our worries.

Especially if they are defeated in the attack after this autumn or winter, Jianlu will realize that even if they can defeat Dongjiang Town, it will be a lose-lose situation and they will not gain much supplies.

It seems, it seems, that the only way left for Jianlu to go is to plunder the capital. However, the number of troops dispatched and those left behind will change greatly.

Historically, the Jianlu plundered the capital almost in full force, with all the four Baylors and the eight banner lords dispatched. But now, Guo Dajing was not sure, and believed that most of the Jianlu would not do this.

So, here comes the problem.

If Jianlu cannot take down the hard nut of Jinzhou for the time being and cannot completely defeat Dongjiang Town, causing Dongjiang Town to lose the ability to launch a large-scale counterattack, how many troops will be left to guard the homeland?

Ten thousand is probably not enough; twenty thousand or thirty thousand is almost the limit, right?

The total strength of the Jianlu troops was calculated as 60,000, which was a strong force. Not counting the general mobilization of "all men under 70 and over 13 years old who joined the army", there were only 30,000 to 40,000 men who looted the capital.

Don’t forget, in history, when Huang Taiji plundered the capital, there were many servants of the Mongolian tribesmen. Historical records said it was one hundred thousand, but Guo Dajing thought it was an exaggeration. It was between seventy and eighty thousand at most, or even less. Gu Zhi

Calculated in this way, if Huang Taiji wanted to make a desperate move, he would probably need 30,000 built captives plus another 20,000 to 30,000 Mongolian soldiers to plunder the capital. The number of built captives left behind in Liaoshen would be about 30,000.

Precisely because Guo Dajing had such an analysis and judgment, he felt that his original idea of ​​attacking Huanglong and taking advantage of the opportunity was a bit too natural.

Even if the entire Dongjiang Army were to mobilize, it would be very uncertain to defeat the 30,000 Jianlu who stayed behind, or even the 40,000 to 50,000 Houjin troops after general mobilization.

Of course, the Jianlu forces should shrink their forces and try their best to protect the ruling centers such as Liao and Shen. The Dongjiang Army would definitely be able to take the opportunity to regain lost territory in other places and achieve some results.

But at the turning point of the national destiny of the Ming and Jin Dynasties, how could Guo Dajing be satisfied with only such a small result?

It's just that the situation is stronger than the people. Guo Dajing has tried his best, but Dongjiang Town's strength cannot advance by leaps and bounds.

But in terms of military strength, if a large number of Liao people cannot be rescued from the Jianlu-controlled areas, the expansion will be close to the limit based on the current population alone.

Therefore, if Guo Dajing wanted to kill more Jianlu without losing too much, he could only rely on the advantage of weapons. The Nanguan Defense Line was the most suitable battlefield to kill the enemy.

If the Jianlu invaders come to attack this year, they will be severely punished so that they will give up their illusions of destroying Jinzhou and severely damaging the Dongjiang Army.

Otherwise, the Jianlu invaders will invade in large numbers next year to eliminate future troubles, and then they can safely travel long distances and plunder the capital.

Alternatively, the Jianlu troops left behind could resist the Dongjiang Army's attack and fight a two-sided battle.

"Next year is the most critical. To be precise, it is from today's autumn to next winter. For Dongjiang Town, there are both opportunities and challenges. But if there are opportunities, we must seize them."

Guo Dajing waited for the generals to finish their discussion and made a concluding conclusion, "The key to seizing the opportunity is strength, otherwise, you can only watch helplessly. But strength includes troops, weapons and equipment, fighting will and skills, all of which are indispensable.

"

The generals bowed in response. After this discussion and analysis, they saw the dawn and the hope of victory. And Jianlu, who was already strong on the outside and capable on the inside, was completely capable of defeating.

………………

Strategically, despise the enemy, and tactically, attach importance to the enemy.

Guo Dajing himself has such principles and beliefs, which are also conveyed and infected to the people around him, and even everyone.

After resting for a night in Besha Mountain City, he ran towards Jinzhou Acropolis.

Whether Fang Zhenghua or Eunuch Fang is in Jinzhou Acropolis or not, Guo Dajing doesn't care at all.

The victory or defeat of a war ultimately depends on strength. Conspiracies and machinations may succeed for a while, but they are by no means the decisive factor.

The understanding of history can only be used as a reference now, and the design cannot be completely based on the original trajectory. Opportunism will often go astray.

"Brother, I picked a dozen more soldiers in Besha Mountain City. The conditions are good. You can train them carefully." Liu Qishi came closer and said: "When we get to Jinzhou Acropolis, I will find some more. I will get some for you first.

A regiment of thirty men."
To be continued...