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Chapter 275 The Plaza Accord

Hearing Yang Jing's words, Cesar and the others nodded excitedly.

Since the last London gold investment operation ended, Cesar and his trading have not been limited to the London gold market. In the past few years, they have kept their strengths and began to shift their work focus to major stock markets and foreign exchange markets. So they are very clear that compared with gold markets and major stock markets, investment in foreign exchange markets often takes longer to deploy. Moreover, once the foreign exchange market is invested successfully, although the gains are huge, it also takes a relatively long time to harvest interests.

In the foreign exchange market, a relatively large and purposeful investment often takes several months or even half a year, and the one year that the boss said is actually not very long in the face of such a large amount of funds.

"Okay, BOSS, since you take care of us so much, then we will take on the trading task of this investment action!" Hearing Yang Jing's words so firm, Cesar didn't want to say more about this, so he made a decision directly.

"Okay! Since you have taken on this mission, I will talk about the specific action plan below."

Yang Jing greeted everyone present, and all of them followed Yang Jing into an operating room on the first floor dedicated to operating.

This room was renovated with a large bedroom, with a total of more than 30 square meters, and there are several workbenches connected together. Each workbench has a telephone and a fax machine, and the most eye-catching thing is the desktop computer on each table.

This is a computer with a very strange shape. Of course, this unique shape is for Yang Jing. For Mike Aller and Cesar, this computer is extremely advanced and sci-fi.

"Wow, BOSS, are these computers the 286 computers that IBM only launched in July last year?" Albert saw the identity of this desktop computer at a glance.

Yang Jing smiled and nodded and said, "Yes, these five computers are the latest computers that IBM only launched last year, using Intel's 80286 processor. At present, they are the most advanced civilian computers. Cesar, you can do this, right?"

Cesar and the others nodded, saying that they would operate such a fresh machine.

In fact, even if there were computers at this time, the application scope of civilian use was still very narrow. After all, in this era, the Internet was only used in the military, and the civilian Internet had not yet appeared.

Without the Internet, no matter how advanced your computer is, it will be useless. Without the Internet, the computer is like a 100-meter world champion who has lost his legs.

"BOSS, these computers are only suitable for calculating various data now, and transactions also rely on telephones and fax machines." Cesar pointed out the limitations of these computers in one sentence.

"I understand, I bought these computers for you to facilitate your work." I clapped my hands and attracted the attention of the team members who were fiddling with those computers. "Guys, are you still satisfied with the environment here?"

Several people nodded with satisfaction. Although this place is not the most professional operating room, the conditions are very good. Even if you work here for a year, you will probably not feel very uncomfortable.

"Okay, since you are all very satisfied with the conditions here, I will start talking." Yang Jing looked at several people and signaled them to sit down, then said: "There are only two investment goals this time, one is yen and the other is US dollar. The work you need to do is to short the US dollar and long the yen."

Cesar nodded and said after understanding, "BOSS, can you explain it in detail?"

"This is no problem. I believe you should have a deep feeling about the continued strength of the US dollar in recent years, right?"

Albert said with a wry smile: "Yes, BOSS, the US dollar's strength over the years and the US government's high interest rate policy have kept the US dollar in a high state. To be honest, we are all worried about how long this situation can last. The current strength of the US dollar is really scary. In your words back then, it would be too much or too much. If this state continues, it would be too dangerous."

Yang Jing snapped his fingers with satisfaction and said, "Albert is right. In fact, I also think that the high-level operation of the US dollar should not last long. The US dollar has seriously caused various adverse situations in the United States, and even Japan and major European countries have been greatly affected. If the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a disaster. Therefore, I think the depreciation of the US dollar has reached the stage of inevitable failure."

Yang Jing's finger lightly tapped the table and continued, "In fact, this situation was not a one-day result, but a series of stupid decisions made by the Washington authorities over seven or eight years. As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the US dollar because of the excessive trade surplus between Japan and Germany and the United States. Although it was just a verbal statement by the US Treasury Secretary at that time, it also triggered a crisis of devaluation of the US dollar. From early 1977 to the fall of 1978, the US dollar devaluated by more than 40% in just over twenty months! This crazy devaluation alarmed the Carter administration, so President Carter formulated the stupid "Save the US dollar package" action, hoping to make the US dollar come back and appreciate."

"Carter's plan should have been relatively wise at the time, but Carter probably didn't expect that the plan had just been implemented, because the outbreak of the Iranian revolution led to a second oil crisis, and the US dollar appreciated strongly at this time, which led to serious inflation in the United States."

Cesar smiled and continued, "BOSS, I know what you said. The inflation in the United States was very serious at that time. Otherwise, Paul Volker, who was then the chairman of the Federal Reserve, would not have urgently implemented three consecutive increases in official interest rates and implemented a tight monetary policy when he first took office."

Yang Jing nodded with a smile and said, "This is a typical example of foot pain, a headache, and Paul Volker's continuous increase in official interest rates has indeed curbed inflation, but in another aspect, it has triggered a series of unfavorable situations. Because the official interest rate in the United States has increased, a large amount of foreign capital flows into the United States, which directly caused the US dollar to appreciate by 60% in just five years! The US dollar appreciates so quickly, and the direct result is that the US government has a large fiscal deficit and the trade deficit has further expanded."

"So, a country's economy cannot be a headache, but should be considered comprehensively. If you are doing it like the Carter administration and the Reagan administration, the final result will be that the current situation is difficult to get into."

"And what's even more ridiculous is that the Reagan administration, who has just been re-elected, doesn't seem to care about the current situation at all. On the contrary, President Reagan, who has been re-elected, will add fuel to the fire. As far as I know, the comprehensive tax reduction policy that Mr. Reagan has been carefully planned is about to be introduced, and the plan to increase US military expenditure is approved by the US Congress, and US defense orders have soared. What will this cause? It's very simple. Once the tax reduction policy is approved by the Congress, then under the dual stimulus of tax reduction and defense construction, the US economy, which was originally in a low-speed growth, will soon enter a high-speed growth channel."

"With huge fiscal deficits and the high US dollar, if the domestic economy is overheated, it will obviously be inappropriate, and it is even an irreconcilable contradiction."

Mike Aller also interrupted: "Yes, on the one hand, the trade deficit is increasingly increasing due to the strong US dollar. On the other hand, it is the excess of domestic production capacity in the United States. If the Reagan administration does not change, this irreconcilable contradiction will completely break out, and once the United States has a complete disaster, it will cause the United States and the whole world to fall into a disaster!" As a senior accountant, Mike Aller still has a thorough view of the macroeconomic aspect.

Yang Jing smiled and gave Mike Aller a thumbs up to show his appreciation.

In fact, what Yang Jing just said is just a fundamental reason. Once the Reagan administration’s tax cut policy + plan to increase US military spending is fully launched, a huge speculative crisis will immediately overwhelm the head of the United States.

After World War II, the world's economy gradually moved towards integration, and the policy of closing the door could no longer adapt to the ever-changing economic development. The global economy has entered a situation where one move can affect the whole body.

As the most powerful country in the world, the United States has always been a weather vane for the world's economy. Once the Reagan administration's tax cut policy + plan to increase US military expenditures is fully launched, it can be expected that in New York, Tokyo and Europe, the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies in the world will continue to rise in an all-round way; on Wall Street, the US stock market will also rise like a bull holding its feet. The US economy will immediately show prosperity, and the US economic prospects also seem to be bright.

However, just when the US economy was the only one, the situation in other parts of the world was very bad. Socialist countries such as the Soviet Union were basically in a state of self-circulation, while developed countries such as Japan and Western Europe were in an average situation. Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia began to grow rapidly, but many domestic instability factors still need to be improved. The war in Cambodia and the change of regimes in South America have discouraged many foreign investors.

When global investment opportunities are not clear, the US economy suddenly becomes bright, which naturally causes many foreign investors to quickly mobilize funds and flock to the US market.

In the words of Soros, a famous financial speculation tycoon in later generations, if financial investment is too active, market speculation factors will increase, financial "bubble" will gradually increase, and the fragility and danger of the market will naturally increase with the further active investment. Once the "bubble" is formed, it will naturally be destroyed. At that time, the collapse of the financial market will inevitably occur, and the opportunity for us to make a lot of money will follow.

Soros was able to occup himself in the global financial speculative market in his later generations, and his vision was naturally not very strong. Since he saw that the US economy was actually in a process of becoming dangerous, he naturally would not give up such a good opportunity.

Before preparing for this investment action, Yang Jing checked a lot of information, among which Soros had a very detailed explanation of the speculative process of the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the yen.

At that time, Soros made a sharp evaluation of Reagan's economic policy from the perspective of financial investment. Soros clearly pointed out that this is a policy that is "worthy of consideration". It is undeniable that this policy stimulated the US economy, but if the stimulus is too great, the US economy may backfire, too much. Soros named the economic development situation triggered by this kind of economic policy that may do bad things, "Reagan's Great Circulation".

The "big cycle" is caused by stimulating economic growth, but a large amount of foreign capital flowing into the US financial market will cause the US economy to grow rapidly in the overall loan and liabilities of foreign countries. At this time, if foreign capital continues to influx, the overall cost of foreign lending and liabilities of the US will increase. At the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the US financial market will be relatively reduced. When the liabilities approach the cost or even exceed the cost of foreign capital source, some inconspicuous factors will puncture the financial "bubble" that has already appeared at any time.

Embodied in the financial market, the exchange rate of the US dollar will fall rapidly like the original rising speed. Foreign funds that poured into the US market for huge speculative profits will naturally flee and quickly withdraw from the US financial market. The consequences will be serious. The huge changes in the financial market will cause the US economy to quickly decline and the overall economy will shrink seriously. The terribleness of the "big cycle" is here. Starting from revitalization, it will return to a state of inefficiency and even recession due to excessive stimulus.

In Soros' words, that is, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase in the money supply in the financial market will cause the economy to overheat, and are afraid that interest rates will lead to a rapid economic cooling. Therefore, stocks affected by low interest rate policies are neglected, and stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policy are optimistic. This is a very dangerous market trend. In fact, the economic prosperity driven by Reagan's policy is not optimistic. The dollar exchange rate rises too much and will inevitably fall. The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the economic cooling is also predictable.

Not to mention Soros, even when talking to Cesar and the others just now, Cesar and the others clearly expressed their fear of the current situation of the US dollar operating at such a high level, let alone those financial tycoons who specialize in financial speculation?

Anyone can see that in order to avoid the United States from falling into a terrible economic crisis due to the Reagan administration's economic stimulus plan, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government that have awakened will inevitably cool the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar. However, these speculative financial tycoons may not be able to guess when the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will take action.
Chapter completed!
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