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Chapter 862 David's Analysis

The reason why Yang Jing did not start to intervene in Apple in the 1980s is that he is waiting for the opportunity now.

In fact, from the establishment of Apple to the later generations, this company became the first company in the world with a market value of over one trillion US dollars. The best time to intervene in this company is to obtain an angel round investment at the beginning of its establishment, and the other is the second half of 1996.

But Joe's strength is well known. Even on April 1, 1976, when the 21-year-old hippie was founded with HP engineer Steve Wozniak and Ron Wayne, who used to do slot machine business, he never thought about angel round financing.

At the beginning of his business, the leader of Qiao attached great importance to his shares, not to mention that when he was kicked out of Apple and wandered outside for more than ten years, seeing the true blood and ruthlessness of capital. After returning to Apple again, he was even more reluctant to introduce Wall Street capital to Apple.

In fact, if he hadn't been kicked out of Apple, but had he been the boss of Apple, with his business genius and advanced design philosophy, there might not have been a computer brand like Dell.

Failure is not terrible, what is terrible is that failure does not know how to work hard again!

Jobs was obviously not like this. The Lisa database and Apple Iie might have really brought considerable losses to Apple back then, but if Apple shareholders could insist on believing in this genius, then Jobs would never disappoint those who believed him, just like what he did after returning to Apple.

To describe Jobs in a more vulgar sentence, this guy is like a flawless diamond. Even though he was once covered in dust, his dazzling light could not be suppressed.

If Apple's shareholders could trust Joe more, perhaps Joe Joe would have launched personal PCs and laptops with better appearance and performance in the 1980s, thus becoming the leader in the industry again. Who can tell the truth about this? But judging from Joe Joe's future performance, if he had not left Apple at the beginning, he would have been very likely to have accomplished such a thing.

By then, Dell, HP, or even IBM will have a great chance of being suppressed by Apple in terms of personal PCs.

But that's all assumptions. To get involved in Apple at the lowest cost, the second half of 1996 is the best time.

Yang Jing left this matter to Henry. With Henry's talent in this area, he will definitely be able to do this without missing a trace.

At such a turbulent opportunity, the equity changes in Apple's dozens of small shareholders' hands will never attract others' attention.

After instructing Henry, Yang Jing called David Anderson in again.

"David, what do you think about the recent economic situation in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea?" Yang Jing poured David a cup of coffee and sat opposite David.

At this time, David Anderson was already almost sixty years old. Perhaps he had increased his age, and he had been successful in more than ten years. At this time, he could no longer see the situation of high IQ but low EQ at the time. Now David Anderson looks like a very wise financial tycoon.

Yang Jing still remembers the scene when he first met David more than ten years ago. At that time, David, who was 45 or 6 years old, looked like a very old-fashioned guy. In theory, David, who has black blood, should be more lively, but the fact is exactly the opposite.

In the subsequent operations, although David showed an unparalleled investment genius, he would not be very good in dealing with people. If Yang Jing, Old Mike and Henry had not been very protective of him, he might have left KY Investment Fund long ago.

However, the saying that the environment can change a person's personality is not a random saying, but it does have some truth. At least this sentence is fully reflected in David.

As David began to take charge of Pacific Capital and led Pacific Capital to kill all sides in the Japanese market, David had really changed a lot at this time.

"Thank you." David first said thank you, and then asked, "BOSS, I don't know what the words you are asking mainly refer to? If we say everything to you, I'm afraid we can't finish it all in one night."

Yang Jing waved his hand with a smile, "David, we are here, just say whatever you think. In fact, I also have some judgment on the recent economic situation in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, so I want to hear your opinion so that I can make my final decision."

David's IQ is very high, and Yang Jing even suspected that this guy's IQ is higher than himself. So, when he heard Yang Jing's words, he immediately asked in surprise: "BOSS, are you planning to attack Southeast Asia?"

"Well." Yang Jing nodded, "In the past two years, I have discovered some huge financial loopholes by studying the development of Southeast Asian countries. I think that since I can find these loopholes, the guys on Wall Street will definitely find them too. So, I want to ask your opinion. If we have the same views, then we can make a fortune in Southeast Asia. Well, maybe we can cut off another piece of meat from Japan and South Korea."

David rubbed his hands excitedly, "BOSS, you actually have something wrong. We actually belong to the category of those guys on Wall Street. Look, the place we are sitting now is a bit far from Wall Street, and although the KY Investment Fund is now hidden deep under the water, we are the Wall Street giants!"

This made Yang Jing stunned, then smiled bitterly and shook his head.

David is right. In 1996, there were about 7 trillion US dollars in international hot money around the world, but the funds owned by KY Investment Fund accounted for more than one-tenth of this huge international hot money, and it is definitely the largest giant on Wall Street!

"BOSS, in fact, I have the same judgment as you. Although several countries in Southeast Asia have developed rapidly in recent years, there are many loopholes and very large. Although there are four little dragons in East Asia now, they are all superficially prosperous. In secret, the countries in Southeast Asia represented by the so-called four little dragons have fatal loopholes in themselves and their domestic financial systems."

After a pause, David began to talk.

"In fact, it is not just Southeast Asian countries. In addition to China, almost all countries in East Asia have loopholes of one kind or another. This is caused by the post-war Asian economic form. Countries and regions such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Bay Island, and Hong Kong Island are all countries with outward-oriented economies. They are very dependent on the world market. As long as the Asian economy is shaken, it will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body."

"First of all, the 'export substitution' model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. The so-called Four Little Dragons in Asia are typical representatives of this economic model. However, this model also has three shortcomings: First, when the economy develops to a certain stage, production costs will increase, exports will be suppressed, causing imbalance in the balance of payments of these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual squeeze between them; Third, the ladder progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness by relying solely on the cheap advantage of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth."

"And most of these countries are developing countries, and maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. However, when the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to continue to maintain the speed, these countries have to turn to borrowing foreign debts to maintain economic growth. However, due to the unsuccessful economic development, some Asian countries no longer have the ability to repay debts since the previous two years. In Southeast Asian countries, the bubbles blown by real estate are only exchanged for bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; as for South Korea, it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, and once the company is in poor condition, the large number of non-performing assets will in turn affect the confidence of investors. This is. The high growth of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets! This is an extremely dangerous thing!"

"But, the economic market system of these countries is not mature. On the one hand, the government has excessive intervention in resource allocation, especially in the direction of loan investment and projects of the financial system; on the other hand, the financial system, especially the regulatory system, is imperfect. This will lead to further expansion of those dangers and will eventually become the last straw that will crush the camel."

Once David Anderson enters his own mode, it will definitely hit the nail on the head.

Yang Jing nodded slightly and said, "David, what do you mean is that there are indeed some huge signs of crisis hidden in Southeast Asian countries?"

"Yes, not only I can see it, as you said just now, many people on Wall Street have seen it."

David took a sip of coffee to moisten his throat, and then said, "For example, when I was having dinner with Charles Roberts of Morgan Stanley two months ago, he also mentioned this. He said that among Southeast Asian countries, the current situation in Thailand is the most dangerous. Countries like Thailand are now pursuing foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign capital, these countries maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand, and expand financial liberalization on the other hand.

, these are simply two contradictory policies. Because in order to maintain their domestic fixed exchange rate system, these countries must use foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, which inevitably leads to an increase in foreign debt. In this case, these countries will inevitably have excessive medium- and short-term debts. In this case, once foreign capital outflows exceed foreign capital inflows and their foreign exchange reserves are not enough to make up for their shortcomings, then the currency depreciation of this country is inevitable."

"Charles and I have the same judgment. Thailand is a typical representative of this contradictory financial policy. Thailand's own financial system is not perfect, but this country actually abolished the control of the capital market in 1992 before its own financial system was straightened out, which made the flow of short-term funds unimpeded, and a large amount of international hot money could take the opportunity to pour into Thailand."

"A huge amount of international hot money entering the Thai financial market will seem to make Thailand's economy prosper immediately, but it also buried a big guy that is comparable to a nuclear bomb. Once the time is ripe, the nuclear bomb buried in the Thai financial industry will inevitably be detonated. At that time, the one who will be killed will inevitably be Thailand's financial system, and international hot money can slowly want to use a feast!"

The Charles Roberts and Yang Jing mentioned by David also knew that this guy had worked at Goldman Sachs before and had a good personal relationship with David. But later the guy jumped from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley, but the two still maintained a good friendship. David was also preparing to dig Charles over, and Yang Jing agreed to this matter.

"Well, David, your judgment is almost the same as mine. In other words, both of us, including Charles, believe that a financial crisis is about to break out in Southeast Asian countries. So David, are you sure that you will kill all sides again in this crisis?"
Chapter completed!
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