Chapter 8 Straightforward Advice
Suzu lied.
There is no winning strategy in gambling.
Any bet has the possibility of some change before the final result is revealed.
The game of "the result is firmly controlled by one party" cannot be called gambling at all.
For example, "online game unboxing/packaging" is purely a repetitive event based on data algorithms. The probability is set by the operator. The seemingly random results are just to create the illusion that "luck exists".
Although some slot machine gambling machines also use principles, slot machines are public, and different people can sit on the same machine to play, so there are still a very small number of players who can get a share of this game where the operator will inevitably make a profit; but the online game accounts... are private. The probability events involved in each account are a pseudo-game between the players who own the account and the operator. To put it bluntly, it is unilateral exploitation.
Real gambling should be a two-way game, and either side has the possibility of winning or losing.
At present, Suga's horse gambling strategy is no exception, and there is a risk of failure.
Of course, although his method is not a "must win", the probability of winning is indeed very high.
This method is called the "double betting method".
Take the event that Ryunosuke randomly arrived at this moment as an example... This is a competition that took place at the local "Central Racecourse" of Sakurano Mansion. Judging from the scene, the time point should be in the 20th century. During this period, there are usually 12 events every day.
The double betting method is: in the first game, 100 yuan (because the currency unit has been converted to a unified value, it is expressed in "blocks") is bet on the "sub-popular". If you win, you will no longer bet on this day. If you fail, you will bet on the next game (the second game) with a double amount of 200 yuan... Similarly, if you win, you will no longer bet on the same day. If you fail, you will bet on the next game with 400 yuan.
Repeat the same operation until you hit it, that is, "win money".
At the Central Racecourse, the winning rate of the second favorite is 18%. A rough calculation shows that, in 12 games a day, there will be an average of two "second favorites" to win; in addition, under "normal circumstances", the odds of the "second favorites" will inevitably be more than twice, so using this method, no matter which game you buy, you will win money.
At first glance, this is indeed a way to "win".
But is this really the case?
Obviously not.
There are two problems with this method: first, capital.
Starting from 100 yuan in the first game, the betting amount will be doubled in each game. In this way, when you buy the tenth game, the betting will cost 51,200 yuan. If you buy the last game of the day, the betting will cost 204,800 yuan. Most people who go to the racetrack can't afford so much money.
Second, the winning rate.
Although the winning rate of "sub-popular" is 18%, this probability also represents the probability of "all second-populars lost in the same day" being (1-0.18)^12≈0.0924=9.24%, that is, this situation will occur every 11 horse racing days.
Some people may say that if the funds are sufficient, it would be okay to lose all within one day, because the "double betting method" can be continued on the second day, that is, betting with 409,600 funds from the first game of the second day. In this way, this is still a "must win method".
Unfortunately... this is still wrong.
When the betting funds exceed 5 million (that is, the fifth game of the next day), you create an "abnormal situation" because your betting amount will greatly change the odds, making the original "sub-popular" become "big favorites", and the winning odds will fall to less than twice... At this time, even if you win, you will be unable to recover due to the reduction in the lottery.
This is gambling.
However, in "virtual horse betting", the situation is different again.
First of all, Ryunosuke's starting capital was sufficient; the six million virtual coins he exchanged for after investing three points cards into the instrument can be bet on the third game of the next day in the form of double bets, and there are still more than two million yuan after this game.
Secondly, the amount of betting on "virtual horse betting" will not affect the "odds"... because the games they sit here are all "things that have happened in the past". No matter how much money they spend here, they are just betting on virtual coins with the computer in front of them. The games that have already happened will not change, either in the results or odds.
Under such a premise, the feasibility of the "double betting method" has naturally improved a lot.
In fact, as long as you "understand" the rules at the door, you will find that the "double betting method" is most likely the "correct solution" to the "virtual horse betting" project determined by the organizer.
For example, "At the end of each game, if the player makes a profit in the game, the next game will jump to another event at another time point; if the player does not make a profit in the game, the event at the current time point will continue." This is simply set to cooperate with the double betting method. To put it bluntly... if you win, you will "change one day" directly, reset the probability, and if you lose, you will continue the game in chronological order.
There is also the article that checks various information and odds before the game, which is equivalent to helping players confirm who are the "big hottest" and "sub-popular" in each game.
If nothing unexpected happens, the last two rules that set the "winning limit" for players are probably to prevent anyone from seeing through the "cracking method" of this game and then unlimited points here.
To sum up, it is not difficult to see...Sakaki had already thought of these when he read the rules at the door; he used the words "must win strategy" to fool Ryunosuke into it with the premise of being very sure.
Of course, there is no need for Shizuo to explain the truth completely to Ryunosuke; this is also a rule that both "experts" understand, unless they have to, they can only say "eight-point words" to laymen.
…………
Subsequently, the development of things also verified Suzu's guess.
The "virtual horse betting" that claims to be "randomly selected to repeat the different horse racing days around the world over two hundred years", actually reproduced all the events of "at least one 'sub-popular' win that day".
In other words, the "double betting method" is indeed the "right solution" set by the organizer; as long as the hidden prompts in the rules are cracked, the probability and odds of betting horses are calculated thoroughly, and then observed through the minimum betting method for a period of time, anyone has the opportunity to crack this secret.
Unfortunately... some people still lost all their money on this project; they can only say that the "experts" invited by these people are too humble and cannot even crack a game of such difficulty. If they encounter confrontational projects, they will definitely lose even worse.
But Ryunosuke is different. He has directly adopted the double betting method from the beginning, so he will naturally not lose.
After a brief observation, Shizuo also discovered the rule that "no matter where he goes, no matter which horse racing day, there will be a favorite win in the twelve games." So he asked Ryunosuke to increase the starting bet amount after each "win money and jump to the time point", and no longer look at any pre-match information and competition process except odds, but just quickly buy the favorites and then jump to the results settlement stage to see the results.
This approach has naturally greatly increased the efficiency of winning money; in just half an hour, their net income from virtual coins exceeded 18 million.
At this time, the game will end automatically.
The coin outlet below the coin port opened, spit out twelve points cards, and placed them neatly; a black suit also walked over in time and asked these people to free up their seats.
When leaving the "virtual horse gambling" game cabin, Ryunosuke was full of fire. His last doubts about Jue had disappeared. He thought he could only kill all men in mahjong. It turned out that playing this kind of game that was like a dealer betting was a good player. This also made Ryunosuke's mentality about becoming a "winner"... subtle changes.
…………
At the same moment, outside the cabin door of the "esp card sensing game".
A strong Latino man walked out of it and played with the eight points cards he had just won with a smug look.
"Oh~ Baby, you are so awesome. You have won so much for me in a while."
As he spoke, a beautifully dressed and hot-bodied Latin beauty followed her onto the deck.
"Ha... the trick of the divine trick, but Darling's cooperation is really good, which saves me a lot of trouble." This beauty is the man's lover and also an "expert" with superb gambling skills; therefore, she is both a man's female companion and a game partner.
Just as the two were flirting, suddenly, another person's voice came from a distance: "'Mandala' is indeed well-known..."
As soon as he spoke, the beauty's expression changed, becoming cold and cruel.
"Who are you?" the woman known as Mandala immediately turned her head in the voice and asked with anger.
She really has reason to be angry, because there are rules among "experts" who can mention the nicknames of some people, and some people cannot mention the nicknames of some people... "Mandala" is a name that should not be mentioned in front of "outsiders".
Seeing Mandala's reaction, the two bodyguards who had just walked out of the game cabin and followed the Latino man consciously stepped forward to surround the chatterer.
"Wow~Wow~" The one who spoke was a very thin white man, who was about 1.6 meters tall and weighed less than 100 pounds. He was wearing a tailor-made brown suit. "Don't be nervous, gentlemen..." Seeing the two burly men blocking him, he quickly opened his hands, raised them to his shoulders, and made a surrender-like action, "I'm just on behalf of my employer... to say a few words to your boss."
"Who is your employer?" The Latino man had already walked to Mandala and hugged the beautiful woman's slender waist. He didn't seem to care much about the small man who suddenly appeared, but since the other party made his woman angry, he naturally would not give him any good face.
"He doesn't know you, Mr. Jimenes." The small man smiled, "But... your father had a close relationship with him during his lifetime. I believe you have heard more or less some rumors about him and... his name." At this point, he slowly reached into the pocket of his shirt and took out a small white stone.
Although it is a stone, the surface is dazzlingly luster and round as jade. At first glance, it may seem like an artifact, but it is actually a natural creation.
As soon as Jimenes saw the stone, his expression changed. His originally relaxed expression disappeared from his face, replaced by a little nervousness.
"You..." Jimenes let go of his female companion in his arms, took two steps forward, and looked at the small man again, "...Is he a '生后'?"
"I dare not take it." The small man shrugged and smiled, "I'm just an errand runner."
"Is there anything I want to tell me?" Jimenes asked immediately.
"Well, actually just one sentence..." When the little man said this, his smile and tone were chilling, "Get out of this ship while he still has life."
Chapter completed!