In the confrontation between Guandu, Yuan Shao may have more resources to fight attrition, but it will also bring more internal conflicts. Cao Cao's relatively short supply line is and Xuchang is closer to Guandu. Yuan Shao needs to transport grain from Hebei. The transportation line is long and is prone to harassment. Even without Wuchao, Cao Cao may also find other opportunities to attack the grain route.

In addition, Yuan Shao's personality weaknesses, such as indecisiveness and lack of good at adopting suggestions, may lead to decision-making mistakes. Cao Cao was decisive and good at seizing opportunities. Of course, the victory in Baima and Yanjin also increased the morale of Cao's army and gave Cao Cao confidence to continue to fight.

Cao Cao's confidence may come from trust in his command ability and understanding of his opponent's weaknesses. He knows Yuan Shao's weaknesses, such as internal conflicts and logistics issues, so even if the troops are insufficient, he has the opportunity to turn the situation around through tactical victory.

Moreover, Cao Cao may have been thinking about how to attack Yuan Shao's grain channel for a long time. Wuchao was just a location determined because of Xu You's arrival. If there was no Wuchao raid this time, there might be other similar attempts.

Therefore, even without Wuchao, Yuan Shao may gradually fall into a passive position due to logistical issues and internal conflicts, and Cao Cao finds other breakthroughs through flexible tactics and efficient command. However, the outcome may depend on who can persist for a longer time and the intervention of external forces. Although Yuan Shao has a higher chance of winning, Cao Cao still has a glimmer of hope.

But now, when Cao Cao faced Fei Qian, he felt like he was possessed by Yuan Shao.

And the key is that Yuan Shao not only possessed himself, but also brought the curse of Yuan.

Yuan Shao fought with Cao Cao at that time, with a large army of 100,000, occupying Jizhou, Youzhou, Qingzhou and other places. Now Cao Cao also occupies Jizhou, Yuzhou and Xuzhou. The area is as vast as Yuan Shao at that time, and he also faces local conflicts caused by long-term wars.

Of course, if Cao Cao and Fei Qian were caught in a long war of attrition, then the advantage of manpower and material resources in Shandong, which had a large population, would be more obvious.

But the problem is that Cao Cao is now even weaker than Yuan Shao.

The reason is not just the counselors and generals, but the cavalrymen!

Cao Cao inherited Yuan Shao's foundation and also inherited the mess left by the Yuan family. The Yuan family group had a serious phenomenon of splitting the counselors at that time, and now there are also discord between the generals and ministers between Cao Cao's ruling group.

Yuan Shao relied on frontal attack for a long time, and his strategic planning was insufficient, and there were many loopholes in defense against the flanks and rear. Although Cao Cao is slightly stronger than Yuan Shao at that time, he also lacks strength in defense against the flanks and rear...

Before entering Guanzhong, Cao Cao felt that the battle between him and Fei Qian was a 50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-

So he bet.

In military operations, most of the time, there is no way to say that you can win safely, so there is a 50% chance of winning, which is already very high.

Although Sun Tzu's Art of War emphasizes that "winning soldiers first and then seeking war", and in theory, it requires that only if the chance of winning is higher than 70% should be taken, the reality is often difficult to satisfy.

However, Cao Cao forgot one thing: in the actual war, 50% of the winning rate is in the critical range of "tactics can be tried, battles should be cautious, and strategies should be avoided". Its value depends on whether decision-making advantages can be formed, whether there is a risk hedging mechanism, and the controllability of the expected consequences of failure.

In these three aspects, due to Guo Jia's death, after the failure of the Battle of Hedong in Guanzhong, both risk hedging and consequence control were not done well.

However, Cao Cao believes that he still has a chance.

Cao Cao also knew that this opportunity was much smaller than the chance of fighting against Yuan Shao back then.

If it was considered 37 or 28 when they were between Yuan Shao, then Cao Cao would not have the chance to win the battle with Fei Qian now.

Cao Cao refused to accept his fate!

He is going to struggle in this life-and-death life!
Chapter completed!