In today's society, no one knows the madness of future housing price trends better than Chen Qiaoshan, but the reality makes people feel helpless.

At present, there are many economists who are underestimated in the real estate economy. Not to mention it, Wei Jie, who is the "Four Young Masters of Beijing" in the economic world with Chen Qiaoshan, is a staunch ostentatious singer.

As early as the end of 2001, Wei Jie, a professor of economic management at Tsinghua University, accepted an exclusive interview with CCTV and advocated that the national real estate bubble had far surpassed Hainan in 2019. He clearly stated that 2002 would be the year when the bubble burst, and he promised with confidence: "If the real estate market does not collapse, I will jump off the building."

Of course, this conclusion is just a joke, and Professor Wei did not jump off the building.

Since 2002, the real estate industry has shown an overheating phenomenon of coexistence of investment and demand. That year, housing prices rose instead of falling, with an average increase of more than 3.8%.

This is just the beginning. In 2003, real estate was established as a pillar industry by the state, and the rise in housing prices entered the fast lane.

Professor Yan is not an old scholar who ignores the world. The real estate economy is an industry closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Although he cannot say that he has conducted in-depth research, he is not ignorant.

Professor Yan knew that welfare housing distribution was over in 1998, and now it is a stage of strong demand, and high housing prices are always arousing the nerves of the people.

Bubble always exists, but economic bubbles and bubble economy are two completely irrelevant concepts, and they must not be confused.

Professor Yan considered that the proposal of his disciple might be worth a try.

Inevitably, he also had some concerns in his heart. This is a very sensitive area. If you study it in depth, it is very likely that both sides will not be pleased with. Wei Jie is the lesson of the past.

At the beginning, Professor Wei's theory of bubble burst won him a lot of reputation among ordinary people, but his prediction did not prevent the continued rise in housing prices. The result can be imagined that some trustworthy people held their money and suffered heavy losses.

It has been more than two years since the incident happened, and from time to time, people still post online, and they have to run Professor Wei to fulfill his contract.

Of course, I won’t jump, but my face will definitely be lost.

Professor Yan is not worried about following Wei Jie's footsteps. He has been immersed in academic research for half his life and has a very experienced vision.

Since real estate is listed as the pillar of the economy, it will definitely not be too early or too late.

Without in-depth analysis, Professor Yan can also make a basic judgment. He dare not determine whether housing prices can continue to rise in the future, but there will definitely be no possibility of squeezing bubbles in the short term.

With a preliminary conclusion, Professor Yan asked: "The real estate industry is indeed worth studying, but pure theoretical research results should not be paid attention to. What is your purpose?"

Chen Qiaoshan said: "Professor Yan, blogs are not about writing papers, but about ordinary people. No one cares why real estate has become the pillar of the economy. They only care whether they can afford a house and when it is appropriate to buy a house. As for other issues, no one cares about it."

"Analysis from the perspective of value theory, monism is difficult to explain the value model of the real estate industry. If you go deeper, you may have some articles to do."

Professor Yan would not make a decision easily, and he asked, "Let me tell me, what are you going to do?"

Chen Qiaoshan didn't answer, and took out a note from his pocket and put it on the table and said, "Look at this."

Professor Yan took it and saw it, and couldn't help but wonder.

This is a handwritten list, not long, but everyone on it is very important.

First ranked Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Financial Development and Financial System Research Office. Behind his name, there are several lines of notes, "Opinion: There is a serious bubble in housing prices, and it is expected to plummet by more than 30%.

The second Wang Xiaoguang is a researcher at the Decision-making Consulting Department of the National School of Administration and director of the Economic Situation Research Office of the National Planning Commission Economic Research Institute. "Main View: Theory of the bubble in the real estate market, there is a possibility of a sharp drop in housing prices in 2004."

The third one is Xie Guozhong...

…………

Professor Yan carefully looked at the list from beginning to end. There were many people. Although not everyone knew each other, they basically had an impression. These people have a great influence in the academic community and have one thing in common, they are the main force in slandering housing prices.

Professor Yan's expression was a bit solemn. He understood Chen Qiaoshan's character. Although this student was young, he never was vague in his work and could not draw conclusions easily. However, he always had a clear idea of ​​his words. His purpose was self-evident.

"Do you think housing prices will rise sharply in the near future?"

Chen Qiaoshan nodded with a smile. Unlike ten years later, the economic world is now more conservative, especially for the real estate economy, because of the painful lessons.

In 1992, the Hainan real estate bubble burst, a large number of real estate developers went bankrupt, and many banks' non-performing loan rates were even as high as 60%.

Tianya, Haijiao, and unfinished buildings once became the three representative landscapes of Hainan, and even triggered the first bank bankruptcy case since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Affected by this, Hainan Development Bank announced the closure of liquidation.

Haiyi is to save the credit crisis of financial institutions caused by the Hainan real estate bubble. It was established by the merger of five trust investment companies. Despite the government's support, it eventually went bankrupt because of the heavy burden.

Haiyi is also the only bank bankruptcy case since the founding of the People's Republic of China. A commercial bank with state-owned assets was eventually closed down. Its influence was very far-reaching, allowing domestic scholars and ordinary people to see the power of the financial bubble.

Some of the depositors' deposits were delayed for 16 or 7 years but not fully cashed out. They took the creditor's confirmation letter but could not get the money back. This lesson is painful.

There are more than that factors that influence academic views.

97 The financial crisis, the Hong Kong real estate bubble burst, and the decline in housing prices once reached 60%. Until 2003, Hong Kong's economy still had negative growth, even as high as -2% in 2003, and it never recovered.

The two serious crises have made domestic economists frightened and even overreacted. This is also the main reason why the economic community is not optimistic about the real estate economy at present.

Chen Qiaoshan is outside, so he naturally doesn't have these concerns.

In the face of Professor Yan's questioning, Chen Qiaoshan responded very easily, "I don't think you need to pay too much attention. Let's just analyze it from an economic perspective."

"The association between bubbles and assets is the norm of the modern market economy. Overvalued value forms bubbles, undervalued value stimulates growth and forms investment value. The economy has expectations and risks, and the same is true for real estate. I think it should be viewed rationally."

Professor Yan put the list in his hand on the table and said dissatisfiedly: "Do you still look at it rationally? The list is ready. Are you planning to use someone to perform the flag?"

Chen Qiaoshan smiled and said, "Professor Yan, it's no wonder that I am. Their views are too misleading and I can't control others. Our master and apprentice can do something."

"How to make a fuss? Are you sure that housing prices will continue to rise?" Professor Yan was thinking about taking the school entrance exam. Although this apprentice was young and sharp-minded, he also wanted to know how Chen Qiaoshan viewed the housing prices issue.

"Professor Yan, I wonder if you have noticed that the plot of land in Nanjing that cost 200 million yuan at the end of May has an average price of around 4,000 yuan. If calculated based on the transaction price of the land king, the floor premium will be more than double. This will lead to a problem. The land is more expensive than a house."

Professor Yan's brows became tighter and tighter. This problem must be difficult for him. The reason is nothing more than supply tightness. On the other hand, developers will definitely not suffer any losses, and risk transfer becomes inevitable. Who is paying for the high land price? It is clear.

The room fell silent, and both the master and the apprentice had their own thoughts.

After a long time, Professor Yan said, "Okay, I'll write this blog."

Chen Qiaoshan couldn't help but be overjoyed. It was undoubtedly much easier to invite this great Buddha and invite others.

"What name do you think is better to choose from the first blog?" Professor Yan suddenly asked again.

Chen Qiaoshan was stunned and thought for a while. He said, "Let's start from shallow to deep, and start from land finance. It's better to call it 'on the flour is more expensive than bread'. What do you think?"

Professor Yan suddenly shook his spirit, and his eyes suddenly became bright. He didn't care about the metaphor of flour, but was attracted by the four words "land finance".

After thinking about it, he slapped the table, looked at Chen Qiaoshan, and said with a little comforting feeling: "Okay, good land finance, the crux of the problem is incisive. It seems that you have put in the effort. In this way, the next key research topic of the Economic Research Center will be land finance."

Chen Qiaoshan looked confused. This was not his original intention, but just a bad term in later generations. Who would have thought that it would make Professor Yan so excited? He was worried that things would change and asked hurriedly: "Professor Yan, then are you reading the blog?"

Professor Yan glared at him, "Okay, since I promised you, I will definitely not break my promise. No matter what bad idea you have made, I will help you with the words "land finance" for the four words "land finance."

Chen Qiaoshan's hanging heart was finally let go. As long as this person agreed, his purpose this time would be achieved.

Happy Lantern Festival!!
Chapter completed!