The schedule for this trip to Hong Kong was very tight. If you deal with Sina Stocks, you can only talk with Elliot in the hotel's administrative lounge the next day.

Last night, I talked about the video website with Yan Xiaoqin on the phone. It took a long time. Chen Qiaoshan got up a little late today, and Elliot was already waiting.

Chen Qiaoshan first picked up a breakfast, then walked to the table where Elliot was and asked, "Don't you come with one?"

"No, I've eaten it." Seeing that he arrived, Elliot put away the newspaper in his hand.

The executive lounge itself is very private, and not many people come here for breakfast. The two of them didn’t want a private room. After sitting down, Chen Qiaoshan asked first: “How was the trend last night?”

Although it was not a beginning or end, Elliot knew very well what he was asking.

"It's very calm, there is no further news. Sina's stock price is still fluctuating at a high level around $33, and the market is waiting for Shanda's next move."

Five days ago, rumors emerged that Sina will change hands on the evening of February 18.

The news came very suddenly, and the outside world generally speculated that Yahoo might attack Sina, and the scandal between the two had long been circulating.

As a result, it was only a moment before 0:00 on the 19th that Shanda announced that it had bought 19.5% of Sina's shares through the secondary market with its joint actors, becoming Sina's essentially the largest shareholder. Affected by this, Sina's stock price soared 17% in the second half of the night.

As early as the end of December last year, nearly one-third of Chen Qiaoshan's funds that he drew from the crude oil futures market were invested in Sina stocks.

Last year, due to bearishness in the domestic Internet SMS business, several major portals were sold by European and American investors, and their market value continued to shrink.

Because the decline was too deep, Sina was also subjected to a class action lawsuit by European and American investors in the United States. Affected by this, Sina's stock price fell further. At that time, Chen Qiaoshan happened to make a big profit from crude oil futures. Seeing the relevant news, he immediately thought of a future acquisition war and immediately told Elliot to buy in large quantities.

The reason Chen Qiaoshan gave was very simple. He was optimistic about the Internet portal. Although this reason was inconvincing, Elliot was already used to Chen Qiaoshan's style and entered the market without asking more questions.

Sure enough, the situation suddenly reversed after only one and a half months.

First of all, the lawsuit was settled smoothly, and the annual report profit margin forecast was better than market expectations, and Sina's market value rose sharply.

Now there is another news that Shanda has entered the market. With a series of stimulation, Sina's stock price has soared to 33 US dollars. Based on Chen Qiaoshan's average purchase price of 21 yuan per share earlier, the potential investment return rate alone exceeds 50%.

As the person in charge, Eliot had to sigh at Chen Qiaoshan's vision and luck. As for other possibilities, he didn't think much about it.

Chen Qiaoshan knew the final direction of this equity dispute. Sina was not swallowed up by Shanda, nor was it taken into account by the original major shareholder. It eventually fell into the hands of management, making it the first MBO in China's Internet industry. This is Sina's clear future context.

"How many Sina stocks do we have?" Chen Qiaoshan swallowed his last bite of bacon, feeling a little unfulfilled. Compared with Chinese food, Western food seems delicate, but lacks a sense of fullness. One portion obviously cannot satisfy his appetite.

Western breakfasts are always not as good as soy milk and fried dough sticks, and they are not very good to his taste. However, he does not mean to go to the restaurant to get a portion again. This is different from investing. It is enough to have a 70% or 80% full meal, but investment requires squeezing every profit as much as possible.

"We hold a total of 1.07 million shares of Sina, and the current shareholding ratio is around 2.12%, with a market value of more than 35 million US dollars." Elliot handed over a stack of materials and then asked: "Chen, should you leave now?"

He has been considering this issue. There are too many uncertain factors in the acquisition war. Although Sina has never had a clear attitude towards Shanda's surprise attack, there are already many rumors in the market.

As we all know, Sina's equity situation is too complicated. Before Shanda intervened, there was no major shareholder with a single controlling shareholder, which gave the outside world too many opportunities. The management's shareholding ratio was too low and there was not enough voice, which is also the reason why it has been criticized by the market for many years.

If Sina and Shanda reach a merger agreement, the stock price will undoubtedly have room for a sharp rise. If the two parties fail, it depends on which side moves faster. It is okay for Shanda to take the lead in controlling the situation. If Sina's board of directors takes the initiative, the investment will probably be greatly reduced.

Elliot knew very well that he was betting now. Compared with UBS's analysis team, he undoubtedly believed in Chen Qiaoshan's judgment more. Whether it was vision or luck, Chen Qiaoshan had never missed it in the face of so many opportunities. This alone was enough to be convincing.

Chen Qiaoshan did not give the answer immediately, but looked through the information he had just obtained.

The information collected by Elliot is very detailed, and there are many UBS investment researchers' prediction reports on Sina's possible response, including the "Poison Pill Plan". Chen Qiaoshan read it with great interest and asked, "What about your opinion?"

"If I decide, at the price of $25, all of them will be handed over and left." Elliot's tone was very natural. The money that earned was the most profitable. Paper wealth looked glorious, but the risk was too high. Maybe it would be possible that the whole market would be lost. There are too many such examples.

Chen Qiaoshan asked: "Do you mean to sell it?"

"Of course, why not?" Elliot's answer was very affirmative. Like other European and American counterparts, he was affected by the last stock market crash, and they generally looked down on the future of Chinese stocks listed in the United States.

As if seeing the disapproval in Chen Qiaoshan's eyes, Elliot asked: "Why, do you have different opinions?"

Chen Qiaoshan put down the information in his hands, and the research reports were only for reference. If the accuracy rate was one-tenth of the weather forecast, there would not be so many investors who lost money. Even if these were all from UBS analysts, he did not pay much attention to it. Compared with these, his memory was undoubtedly a hundred times more reliable.

"I don't think the Sina board of directors will submit easily. Of course, I don't think the Shanda Conference is in an acquisition war with Sina."

Chen Qiaoshan gave his own judgment and was prepared to reveal the future direction of the equity acquisition case.

He was not worried about any trouble. Such things were different. Even if they were verified one by one after another, they would just add another accurate prediction. By the way, he also gave his own reasons. Since it was a judgment, there should always be a reason to convince people:

"Shanda is now no more than US$3 billion, and their holding costs are definitely higher than us. It is conservatively estimated to be between US$200 million and US$300 million. If this investment is trapped, it will definitely be a damaging move. This is definitely not the result that the investors behind Shanda are willing to see."

"Do you think Shanda's acquisition of Sina will eventually become a financial investment?" Elliot quickly understood what Chen Qiaoshan meant.

"Of course, because this is most in line with the interests of several parties." Chen Qiaoshan knew that things not only ended, but the climax would appear in April. Sitong Holdings, the founding major shareholder of Sina, actually cashed out at a high price before the acquisition war ended, and took the opportunity to cut another wave of leeks, which surprised the outside world.

Elliot asked, "Then let's continue to hold on to the sidelines?"
Chapter completed!