Due to the huge difference in power between the two sides in war, the Iraq War has basically become a war without suspense.

However, the impact of this war on the world economy is full of suspense.

As the war situation becomes increasingly clear, major economic organizations around the world have recently predicted that the world economic growth rate will remain above 3% this year, and the US economy is the most affected by the war.

Due to the expected impact of war on Iraq, the consumer confidence index has been greatly affected, which is obviously unfavorable to the economic recovery, especially as international oil prices began to rise.

Fan Wubing saw this clearly. The economic responses before all wars were almost the same. When the war was overwhelming, or when expectations for future wars were still unclear, international oil prices generally rose. After the war began, the situation of the war became clear, international oil prices would fall, and the US stock market would also begin to rebound, and the US dollar exchange rate would continue to strengthen.

Therefore, in view of the current situation, Fan Investment Group is also starting to make profits in the futures market and stock market. If it operates properly, it will earn a net worth of $10 billion.

However, Fan Wubing carefully observed the views of some mainstream media. Most of them believed that the Iraq War would not last long and would be beneficial to the world economy this year. However, we should also see that the development of different regions and countries after the war will be even more unbalanced.

War has the greatest positive effect on the US economy, and the arms industry and other sectors related to the war benefit. Iraq's post-war reconstruction will bring a large number of orders to American companies, and confidence in domestic investment and consumption in the United States will increase accordingly. Britain that actively participates in the war will also have greater returns, while Russia, France and Germany will have less benefits in war dividends. Therefore, war will lead to an imbalance in economic growth in these countries.

War cannot fundamentally resolve the internal contradictions of the US economy, nor will it change the economic strength comparison of major countries.

Some people also believe that the United States can win the war without a doubt, but it may not necessarily win economic growth, because many problems faced by the American economy will not be resolved because of the Iraq War.

First of all, it is because war cannot solve the problem of overproductive capacity of the new economy. The economic recession in the United States in recent years stems from the overproductive capacity of the new economy represented by the IT industry. Although war will help digest the new economy's production capacity to a certain extent, its effect is limited.

Secondly, the peak of the US real estate industry is passing. After the stock market bubble burst, Americans lost about $7 trillion, and the booming real estate industry has become the main force in promoting the US economy in recent years. Through the appreciation of real estate, Americans' losses in the stock market have been compensated by $30,000 to $4 trillion.

However, in recent times, the vacancy rate of houses in the United States has reached 20%, and even if the war is won, it will not expand people's demand for real estate.

In addition, the exports of many manufacturing industries in addition to the arms industry are unsuccessful. Due to the economic downturn in Europe and Japan, the exports of the United States' manufacturing industries have been greatly affected. The war is not likely to bring too many positive factors to the recovery of the European and Japanese economy, so the US's manufacturing industries will not see the dawn in the short term.

Although war will stimulate some industrial sectors in the United States, it is still unknown how long this war prosperity can last. Due to the huge war spending, the United States' fiscal deficit and the significant increase in the international current account deficit, and the negative impact of the double deficit on the US economy cannot be underestimated.

Will the US dollar continue to remain strong? How much will the oil price fall? Will the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC limit production and insure price? These are all unknowns.

At this time, Iraq's oil exports have limited impact on world oil prices, and oil price fluctuations are mainly caused by international capital speculation and public psychological panic. However, once the Americans win, Iraq's post-war reconstruction requires a large amount of oil to pay for it. The export volume is naturally incomparable to the original implementation of the United Nations oil-for-food plan. The end of the war, coupled with Iraq's increase in oil exports, the decline in world oil prices has become inevitable, which will be beneficial to world economic growth. However, for each specific country, the situation is very different.

The oil companies of the United States and Britain control 70% of the oil resources of Arab countries. The victory of the Iraq War will further consolidate their status and the oil sources of the two countries will be more secure. For France, Germany, Japan and the vast majority of developing countries, oil sources may be increasingly restricted by the United States and Britain, and energy security issues may become a new insecurity factor.

The Russian economy is in the process of recovery, and rising international oil prices will be an important driving force for Russia's economic recovery. Once the Iraq War is over, the decline in oil prices will have a significant impact on Russia's economy.

One of the basis of the Russian Federation's budget this year is that crude oil prices remain around twenty-five US dollars per barrel. If the oil prices fall below twenty US dollars per barrel, Russia's budget plan for this year will fail, and Putin will feel a headache.

Experts also believe that the direct impact of the Iraq War is to slow down the process of economic globalization. In the previous few years, the global anti-globalization wave was developing rapidly. This time, the United States promoted unilateralism, intending to put aside the United Nations launching the war against Iraq, which led to a global anti-war wave. This sentiment will surely continue until after the war and become a force to promote anti-globalization.

In the past two decades, with the rapid growth of the economy in Asia, especially East Asia, the economic relations between the United States and Asian countries have developed rapidly. By last year, the United States' international current account deficit was US$500 billion, of which more than US$200 billion were generated in Asia.

According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, at the end of last year, the world had a total foreign exchange reserve of more than 23,000 US dollars, of which about six were owned by Asian countries. Most of the foreign exchange reserves of Asian countries were invested in various bonds and stock markets in the United States.

It can be said that it is Asian countries that support the strong position of the US dollar. At the same time, from the Middle East, Central Asia to South Asia, and East Asia, the arc-shaped zone has been constantly conflicting in recent years and the situation is complex, becoming a problematic region that attracts the attention of the United States. Therefore, after the Iraq War, the United States will further strengthen its ties with Asian countries in political, military and economic aspects.

It can be foreseen that the impact of the Iraq War on the world economy will far exceed whether it stimulates economic growth. Although from the perspective of stimulating US economic growth, the military expenditure brought by this war and Iraq's post-war reconstruction are a stimulus.

However, this war will be a major trauma to Iraq and the Middle East. The destruction of wealth created over the years is also a destruction of human wealth and a destruction of human development. From the perspective of American taxpayers, a large amount of taxes that could have been used to increase social welfare and promote the development of civilian technology are used on arms that cannot be consumed by people, which in itself is a huge waste.

Of course, the factors that affect the domestic economy are not the only one expected Iraq War.

Due to the SARS epidemic, many local governments have planned a series of market developments, business exchanges and other activities have been significantly affected. The annual investment promotion activities have been affected, and some have been postponed. The transaction volume during the same period has dropped by almost 80% compared with the previous session. Due to the domestic epidemic, although the mainland government has been emphasizing that it has nothing to do and the impact is minimal, the international response has been obvious. For example, a branch of Fan's Investment Group has formed a group to participate in business activities in Vladimir, Russia, and was unable to make a trip due to the difficulty of applying for a visa. The Philippine Products Exhibition, which is planned to be held in March, was also postponed to August.

Affected by this, most of the light industry, technology, textile products such as summer cloth, ramie cloth, etc., which are sold in samples. The orders have been significantly reduced, the new customers of motorcycle products have decreased, and the export orders for agricultural products such as frozen pork have been greatly reduced.

At the same time, neighboring countries began to respond to the domestic SARS epidemic, and the logistics of imported and exported goods were affected. Myanmar suspended China-Myanmar border trade activities, Xinjiang section of the China-Myanmar border, the China-Pakistan Hongqilafu port suspended the switch, and Lithuania prohibited the import of animal-source food and animals from China, Thailand and Vietnam, raw materials, feed, feed additives, etc.

At present, some companies under the company also reported that governments or importers in Spain, the United Kingdom and other countries require domestic companies to issue certificates without SARS virus exported goods. Some importers in the United Kingdom and France have also proposed that Chinese inspection and quarantine agencies issue SARS disinfection certificates for exported clothing, rubber, cartons and other products, which have increased the export costs of enterprises.

In view of the hindrance of face-to-face business activities, the Foreign Trade Commission proposed to vigorously develop e-commerce and maintain normal trade order as much as possible.

Under this dominant idea, the Foreign Trade and Economic Commission recommended multiple online trade websites such as the e-commerce platform built by Fan's Investment Group to key enterprises. At the same time, after a meeting with the head of the Foreign Trade and Economic Commission, Fan Wubing agreed to provide free support for the production of three-dimensional website advertisements and the release of trade information on the Fan's Investment Group's website platform, and established a trade bridge for various enterprises on the Fan's Investment Group's e-commerce platform, providing the latest financial, insurance and other information services.

After receiving the strong support of Fan Wubing, the Foreign Trade Commission also began to step up the development and construction of import and export commodity databases, with special funds provided by the central government to speed up the trial operation of the port logistics network, and build a platform for online negotiation and online transactions for enterprises.

At the same time, the central government also stated that it would provide all foreign economic and trade enterprises with three-month online training for e-commerce courses, conduct online tutoring and Q&A to improve the application capabilities of enterprises' e-commerce.
Chapter completed!