Twilight Testimonials and the Small Filter Theory
Huh, the story of Volume 9 has finally ended. Whenever I finish writing a book of stories, I always feel a sense of sincerity.
The stories of the other few human branches are written a little bit simple and will not be described in detail. As long as you know the general trend, you can basically do it!
Some people say that exposing the virtual world technology is too dangerous, but in fact it is not, because Glitzer 581 humans also have such technology. Otherwise, in the face of immortality technology, how could the Kunlun Mountain Fleet leave safely? It’s just that there are no people from Captan.
This book has 1.2 million words, which is not just a story for me, but also a story for everyone. If it is written badly, everyone will feel unhappy and I will blame myself.
Fortunately, I am personally quite satisfied with the plot of the entire trading market. I wrote about some ordinary interstellar civilizations, some higher-level civilizations, Gaia faction, Amoeba faction, Crimson Industrial Union, etc., filled in some pits, and dug some pits...
Then he successfully opened the new map and went to another place with the Toss.
The most difficult part of a book on the Internet is to open a new map. Only when you open a new map can you get new content. However, there is no benefit to open a map randomly except being criticized by readers. If you logically open a new map, there should be no problem!
So... Will the new human beings come back in the future?
Of course I won't come back, so how can I write it when I come back! New humans can help brothers of the same origin, but it is impossible to give up a bright future for brothers who have not met for thousands of years, right?
Some people say that the theme of this book is that it lacks despair and heaviness in contrast to the dark forest system, which makes it a bit lack of passion.
This is also a matter of no choice. The core theory of this book is the "principle of mediocrity" and the "small filter theory", which itself is a model of boiling frogs in warm water. Civilizations are not as good as those between "The Three-Body Problem", and they will only be slowly cleared out by time, so naturally there is no way too high a sense of persecution.
Any life-and-death war seems full of passion, but war requires motivation. This book sets resources far exceeds the needs of civilization, so naturally there is no motivation for war. This is determined by the core tone.
Once the book is revised randomly, it will collapse.
Let’s talk about the so-called “small filter theory” below. A lot has been written in the previous content, but it has not been introduced in detail, so I will write it in detail here.
In my first book, "Under the Deep Space", I rewrite the theory of the big filter.
It believes that when civilization develops to a certain extent, it will face a major threshold, which is only one in tens of millions or even one in billions of probability. Therefore, most civilizations have stagnated before they develop into interstellar civilization.
The small filter theory is one of the variants. It believes that in the process of development of civilization, there may not be such a large threshold with extremely low pass rate, but there are invisible small thresholds.
The probability of passing these small thresholds is not as terrifying as the large thresholds. For example, the probability of passing is one-half and one-third, which is much higher than one-tenth of one-millionth.
However, there are a lot of these small thresholds, and multiplying these probabilities is also a very, very small number.
This is a way to boil a frog in warm water. It won’t be so shocking when written. But I think that in reality, the possibility of a small filter may be a little higher than a large filter. People always don’t know themselves, thinking that a half chance can be passed by one by one, and they work hard on their own. In fact, it is not. If you can pass one, can you pass the second one? As long as there is a "small filter" that cannot pass, humans will not be able to enter the interstellar era.
Just like the civil service exam test, the few who end up in the end are ultimately the few.
So, how many "small filters" are there in this book or in reality?
The first is natural conditions such as oxygen, which refers to the concentration of oxygen that can support the combustion of organic matter. If a planet does not even have combustion phenomena and cannot smel metals, or lacks certain rare metals, it is likely to lose the possibility of climbing upward technology.
The second is the social system. Some social systems will imprison people's thinking and close people's thoughts, so that the entire society has been reincarnated in the medieval world for a long time and falls into the paradigm trap.
The third is religious factors. Human beings have not yet escaped from religious constraints. This is an ideological war between values in the 21st century and values in the 7th century. It is unpredictable who wins and who loses. However, judging from the current world situation, there is a tendency for ignorance to gradually defeat civilization.
The fourth is the economic system. Capitalism is short-sighted, and capital that is too profit-seeking and short-sighted will gradually distort people's values and moral values. Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet hegemony, humans have never landed on the moon again.
The fifth is the issue of unifying the world. If you want to colonize space, even if it is just the moon, it is very difficult for a single country to integrate at least half of the world's power, or one-third of the power, to reduce internal conflicts.
However, looking at the world, over the past hundred years, the number of countries in the world has increased significantly, not fewer. In the not-far future, there is still a trend of increasing, and there is no trend of decreasing.
The sixth is whether key technologies such as controlled nuclear fusion and recyclable rockets are likely to appear, which can greatly reduce the cost of aviation engineering.
The window period for controlled nuclear fusion is about 20 to 30 years. At present, photovoltaic solar energy has been able to achieve parity in the Internet access, and in the next 20 to 30 years, with technological progress, it will become more and more competitive. In 2050, Xia Kingdom will be severely aging. If the progress bar of controlled nuclear fusion has not reached more than 50%, there is probably no spare money to work on this thing. (The future deduction is very complicated, so I won’t say much about it here for now.)
The seventh is whether hibernation technology is really feasible. The rich man who was still frozen there fifty years ago is probably no longer able to thaw.
So will real hibernation technology appear in fifty years?
If human hibernation technology does not exist, then stellar navigation becomes nonsense, Proxima Centauri cannot go, and humans can only revolve in the solar system at most. Of course, it would be great if they could revolve in the solar system.
The eighth is corruption. If even the scientific research circle is corrupt, what motivation does a civilization have to move forward? However, corruption is normalized and inevitable.
The ninth is the aging of high-quality population. All high-quality populations are in an aging crisis. On the contrary, population explosions are occurring in South Asia and other regions, and food crises may occur within ten years. At that time, the risks that occur will be unpredictable.
Wait and wait... and there are also a large number of questions that have not been listed.
This is the theory of small filters. No one can guarantee how to solve these complex problems. Even though he knows that it exists, he is powerless.
It is possible that humans can solve it, but it may never be solved.
Humans may have passed the first few small filters by chance, but what about the ones behind?
Multiplying all probability will be a slim number. The only thing we ordinary people can do is live every day, love our motherland, and cultivate our ability to distinguish right from wrong. There are many rumors on the Internet now, and there are more hatred for the National Party that incites emotions than imagined.
Perhaps, most civilizations in the universe face one or another.
Of course, it is an idealized model. The entire society is not as complicated as reality, otherwise there will be no way to continue writing.
This book has been written in the middle of the period, and there are many clues. Since I have written a similar book, it has exhausted the inspiration and it is very difficult to write.
Sometimes I just sit in front of the computer.
The subscription to this book has not achieved the expected results, and there has been no serious recommendations for more than two months. I hope everyone can support it. Behind a genuine reader, there may be a hundred pirated readers.
The more support you have, the more motivation you have.
Only the subscription share at Qidian is 50%, and the other channels of China Literature are 25%. As for the other channels, such as Apple's subscription, Apple first takes 30%, and the remaining authors and websites score.
Baidu reading or book-chasing artifact is not worth a penny. Don’t foolishly recharge money on these small websites to subscribe and give people money for free. If you think you support the author, you actually don’t.
Capitalists’ exploitation is really amazing!
Okay, let’s get back to the point, I’ve finished writing a volume and planned to take a day off tomorrow.
I wish you all a happy Christmas in advance!
Chapter completed!