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From this report in the Wall Street Journal, we can truly feel what is hidden behind the overheated investment in China - the world's highest investment rate? The world's lowest capital utilization efficiency? The sluggish consumption demand? The overheated investment expansion... After these unexplainable contradictions and paradoxes that appear in the same system, we seem to see an invisible hand that is swaying the country's economy with its huge energy, and is investing the social wealth created by the billions of people in China without any mercy into a burning furnace. Although such investment objectively promotes the rapid growth of China's GDP, ask, such investment is burning money. The question is, who is burning money? Who is burning money?

Another subtext contained in the country after the funds of the country is an excessively high investment decision error rate. According to the World Bank's preliminary estimate, the investment error rate of the country has been above 40% in the past few years. What? This means that in every two projects invested in the country, at least one project can make investors lose all their money, and this ratio. Under the base of today's country, it is an unbearable huge waste and consumption. Compared with the fact that the country is still a developing country, such waste and consumption are particularly dazzling and thought-provoking.

According to normal understanding, too low investment efficiency and too high investment error rate. What it describes should be a market where the investment environment has deteriorated quite a bit. In such a market, every investment can only bring very meager investment returns to investors while bearing huge investment risks. The risks and returns are obviously disproportionate. Any rational investor, as long as his brain is not burned, will definitely stay away from such a market. However, in zh country, what we see is not like. In many places, one lively investment project after another, hundreds of millions or billions of investment funds are like suicide squad members shouting the slogan "invulnerable to swords and guns", one by one, holding a wooden stick in his hand and walking barely on the fire line filled with gunpowder...

This is not a humor that can make us feel any pleasure. But apart from this humor, we cannot find any other more appropriate description of the crux of the overheating environment of China's economic investment demand - (continued above) The "courage and fearlessness" and "faithfulness" of the suicide squadrons made us stand on the other side of the river to watch the fire, and our hearts were full of doubts. We all guessed where they were. Without them, there would be no today of China's GDP. That night, we faded away together, with questions, and walked carefully to the battlefield. The "corpses" of the suicide squadrons appeared in front of us in a very tragic appearance. We finally made a discovery and revealed their identities - ah, these people were all government forces...

The dominant position is our local governments and relevant government officials at all levels. It is the investment fanaticism of local governments and relevant officials at all levels. Over the years, while contributing strong momentum to GDP growth, it has also gradually brought the country's economy to a dangerous situation and wrong perception.

What kind of dominant position does government investment occupy in social investment? This question is probably only answered with objective numbers. According to the lowest algorithm and according to the statistics last year, state-owned investment accounts for more than 50% of the total social investment. If the irrational support of private investment is added to this proportion of the state-owned banking system monopolized by the government, this number will reach a terrifying level. The iron-born case that occurred in the past few years has made a good explanation for the irrational support of this private investment by the state-owned banking system.

There is no doubt that the government's leading role in social investment is that from the following set of public data and statistics, everyone can have a clear enough understanding of the scale and benefits of market investment led by local governments and officials at all levels.

According to the National Audit Office, the Bureau of Statistics and the Development and Reform Commission, as of the end of last year, only 9 of the 37 treasury environmental protection projects in nine provinces across the country were completed as planned and met the requirements, accounting for only 24% of the total number of projects. However, after a certain province used the first batch of treasury bond funds seven years ago, it was found that 8 were unable to operate normally; among the 38 branch airports built in the country in recent years,

. It is to build an international metropolis. More than 50 cities have proposed to build internationalization: more than one-fifth of the more than 20,000 established towns in the country, that is, 4,000 towns have obvious "image projects" and "political achievements projects"...

No doubts about the country, and when we specifically dissect this kind of market investment behavior led by local governments and officials at all levels, the incredible aspects are even more shocking. Among them, the city of a certain province in the central country can be used as a living specimen of typical significance for us to understand.

A few years ago, the main leaders of YG City proposed the goal of building YG into the largest city in China. To this end, YG Airport must be expanded into an international airport. Project budget investment 4. When the project started, the city's workers, teachers and farmers were each assigned hundreds of yuan in local airport construction fees. Today, the city's airport has been built for more than a year. What is the actual effect? ​​The total throughput of less than 1,000 passengers, the annual financial subsidy of one or two star lines is 4 million yuan and the flock of wild birds have become a true portrayal of YG, the "international airport". YG Airport was forced to close as soon as it was completed. In addition to YG aircraft,

The municipal government has also had many classic investment activities. The "Southeast Asia Zoo" project cost hundreds of millions of yuan and occupied nearly 100 acres of arable land, but it ended in vain. The only animal in this zoo is two little tigers who were hungry all day long. The government invested hundreds of millions of yuan of "YG Power Plant" project took eight years, and the power plant was about to go bankrupt before it was issued. When the power plant was requisitioned, it had a fierce conflict with local farmers. Many farmers who only received a little cheap land acquisition payment finally had to embark on the road of relocation and work... Because of these projects, the economic development potential of the yg place was consumed by at least ten years ahead of schedule!

These investment activities in yg city are of very typical significance. It is said that it reveals the two-way predatory nature of this government-led economy in the local area: on the one hand, it plunders and wastes natural resources, but it encloses a lot of land but abandons countless wastes. When the factory is completed, it is the day of shutdown. The land value and resource value cannot be fully tapped and utilized, which overdraws the development potential of the national economy; on the other hand, it is the plunder of ordinary people. Through barbaric land acquisition, barbaric demolition and forced levies, it not only further weakens the consumption capacity of ordinary people, but also further increases the

The social contradictions in the local area have laid hidden dangers instability. These investment activities in YG City, led by the government and officials, are typical, but they are never isolated, and they can open newspapers casually. Such reports can be seen everywhere in various places. In this regard, the people even rumored to describe such investments and projects. The people described these investments and projects as "only lay the foundation, not complete the work; only cut the ribbon, not profit; only see investment, not output; only see investment, not results". Some officials are called "three-pray cadres" by the people - "slap the brain, make the decision with the chest, and leave!"

It is impossible to say that the GDP theory's view of political achievements and the standards for promoting officials are the biggest incentives for investment activities and various political achievements projects mentioned above, but what is particularly worrying is that the GDP growth brought about by such investment activities will not only further distort people's objectiveness in the country's economy. The latter will disintegrate the development momentum and confidence of the country's economy from the source.

The inefficient investment capabilities of local governments at all levels at the cost of huge waste of funds and resource consumption are not unlimited and lasting. As mentioned earlier, in an economic and economic system that is bound to be bound to have a final payer for the consequences of economic activities that completely ignore objective economic laws. Who is the final payer? You may answer that banks or states, banks or states will pay for the trillions of bad debts caused by these investment activities. Is this really the case? It is deposited in the financial system of zhh.] This huge bad debt iceberg that has been completely crushed by the financial system of zhh. It can really be like what Xu Zhimo said in his poem - I left gently, waved my sleeves, and did not take away a cloud?

Considering that banks with huge non-performing loan rates are state-owned banks, the government will inevitably become the last buyer, and there are only two ways for the government to pay, that is, use its own fiscal credit or monetary credit to fill the trillions of financial black hole. The basis for the establishment of the government's fiscal credit is the government's future fiscal revenue, while the government's monetary credit is the central bank's currency issuance right. Faced with such a huge financial black hole, any government is actually taking the risk of bankruptcy when it decides to use its own fiscal credit to cover up these bad debts, considering that

In fact, the government uses fiscal credit to fill this black hole with limited strength and limited strength, and the actual situation is the same. Looking back at the past, the central bank provided assistance to financial institutions on the verge of bankruptcy in China, we found that more often, the government canceled the bad debts of those financial institutions with huge amounts by issuing currencies, that is, expanding government currency credit. This is essentially a currency game that robs money from the hands of ordinary people. Although the central bank can make money by starting a printing machine, the expansion of government currency credit is at the cost of diluting the existing currency in the hands of every Chinese or in the bank. The potential result is what the people say, "money is worthless." It reflects the macroeconomic side, and brings huge inflationary pressure. Through the commonly used indicators of meter-2/gdp, we can feel how much inflationary pressure has reached today. Last year,

, the m2/gdp indicator of zh country exceeds 200%. It is close to three times the same indicator in the United States, and it is another world number one created by the economy of zh country. If the country is broad-based currency, then it will not take long. At the current speed, at most 10 years, zh country m2/gdp will become 400%| It will create a miracle that has never been seen in the history of world finance. Anyone who has a knowledge of economics can clear it.

Clearly identify this indicator until then. What kind of chilling scene will be hidden behind it. The government's social control ability has always been proportional to the government's credit. The stronger the government's credit, the stronger the society's regulatory ability, and vice versa. The government's credit is proportional to the government's monetary credit. When the government's monetary credit faces a huge crisis, it brings us land, and may not just an economic problem!

To use an indecent metaphor, the strong current performance of the country's economy and its lasting ability to indulge indulge in desires. To a large extent, it is just a result of overheating the aphrodisiac. As long as the medicine is effective, the country's economy, which is fat but weak, will inevitably pay a heavy price for it.

Speaking of this, the country's economy seems to face a dilemma. If the country's economy wants to grow, the country's GDP needs to grow. This is inseparable from this excessive investment rate. According to the current situation of the country, as long as the investment that drives economic growth occurs, the growth of GDP becomes unsustainable, which will also bring many social problems. This will allow the country's economic growth driven by investment.

Some people may think that we have exaggerated the problem and are optimistic. Judging from the vitality of the current economy of the country, the economic development driven by investment-led local governments at all levels in the country seems to have considerable vitality and development space, and future problems may not be as pessimistic as we said! Our answer is that in fact, we feel that we are already quite optimistic. From the perspective of reality, the signs of exhaustion of this development model are emerging in many aspects, and the resources that can be squandered and wasted by this model are exhausted.

First of all, the financial system of the country, which has been eroded by this model for many years, is obviously no longer able to provide sufficient financial support for this model. Many local governments have begun to develop the idea of ​​social security funds. It is no longer news that the social security funds are misappropriated and squandered. What's more, some places even want to seek national policy support and blatantly want to use the social security funds accumulated in the local area into various local investment and construction.

Secondly, the fact that many local governments across the country tacitly began to use non-renewable land speculation on a large scale to forcibly promote economic growth seems to further demonstrate that the factor resources available to local governments to promote economic growth have become less and less available for maneuvering and utilization after squandering over the years...

What about the country: +. What about? Many knowledgeable people in China are thinking about this question, and in many cases, when this question is asked, some self-righteous saviors immediately jump out and are full of confidence. In the tone of God, we can tell us the way out of the country's economy - expand exports and introduce foreign investment. Only by adding: + economic transformation can we have a way out.

This is the national economy..... What we see further...
Chapter completed!